گزینه های خود را در نظر بگیرید : تغییرات به منظور ارزش استراتژیک در طول اجرای فن آوری های پیشرفته تولید

Strategic investments such as flexible manufacturing technology yield benefits to a company beyond the immediate cash flows. These strategic benefits can be captured, to some degree, using real option valuation techniques. However, real option models presume these can be identified and evaluated at an early stage in the investment process. In this paper, the authors argue real option value is often only vaguely defined at the adoption stage and frequently manifest during implementation. By examining four advanced manufacturing technology investments during implementation within different organizations, this study qualitatively explores the changes to original real options as unanticipated problems surface and solutions are found and implemented. The study found that as the companies adapted to implementation setbacks, the form, scale, value and clarity of the real options changed. For three of the companies, the changes to options were negative while the fourth case indicated positive effects. Most prevalent were delays in the earliest possible exercise date. The results highlight the need to consider changes to strategic value as companies adapt to setbacks that arise during project implementation. Implications for the evaluation of such projects are discussed.

Increasingly, companies are looking to advanced manufacturing technologies (AMT) to acquire or sustain competitive advantage. This can be gained from economical small batches, scheduling flexibility, growth options and staged investments, rapid prototyping and shortened response time to changes in supply, demand and competitor activity. AMT is typically more expensive and complex than conventional technology and much of the value needed to justify its adoption is derived from benefits that are intangible, contingent and hard to quantify. Recognizing the difficulty in evaluating such benefits, researchers undertook to develop a model that would capture the flexibility and strategic value of investments. The result was the expanded or strategic net present value, which adds the real option value to the traditional NPV. This development has made valuation more comprehensive but it is also more complicated. The strategic net present value model still requires strategic benefits be identified and quantified at an early stage in the investment decision process. Adding to the elusiveness of the value, some real options may be latent. Beyond the ‘go/no go’ decision to invest in AMT, many changes to the project and its associated value can occur during the critical and complicated implementation phase. Strategic value can change, be destroyed or created during implementation. The emphasis of real option research on the evaluation of the investment decision does not attend to these eventualities. Real option valuation is described in the next section. This is followed with a review of relevant implementation research, as found in the innovation literature. As the juncture of these two areas of research, this exploratory study endeavours to develop grounded theory for the changes to real option value that occur as unanticipated, internal problems arise during implementation and as solutions are identified and executed. The output will be propositions regarding changes to real option value during the implementation of advanced manufacturing technology. These propositions provide a springboard for further research.

This study revealed instances when option value was lost during implementation of advanced manufacturing technology due to the occurrence of misalignments and the adaptations of managers and plant floor workers. The value lost was in the form of decreased number of options and potential cash flow due to decreased capability and capacity of the technology that the companies settled for, increased conservativism of managers, and delays in getting the equipment operational that made it so they could not exercise options. The implementation delays and their effect gives insight into the uncertainty of investment lag. This study revealed unexpected delays in implementing an irreversible capital investment that occurred as a result of misalignments and adaptations, demonstrating a source of the uncertainty of investment lag. Lags were longer than expected, which left the firms unready to exercise the options when the time was optimal or forecast. The effects of misalignments and adaptations shortened the opportunities and even closed down real options. At the time of the original investment, these were unforeseen by the managers. These add to the supply-side uncertainty Alvarez and Keppo [2] factored into their valuation model and add insight into the impact of lag on sequential and compound options and the balance between the cost and benefit of waiting to exercise. Some of the loss in option value can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive and documented evaluation of the capital investment. In particular, the real options of the investments were only vaguely defined during the planning stages. The lack of perspective left managers less aware of the effect their adaptations had on the project's strategic value. They sacrificed options and the benefits of these expensive and complex investments were diminished as a result.