تجزیه و تحلیل بازار گاز طبیعی برای تولید برق در چین

The consumption of natural gas (NG) has been increasing at an annual growth rate of more than 10% in China, and it is expected to be used broadly in China to replace coal in downstream sectors to reduce air pollution due to coal burning. However, at present, it is difficult for NG to penetrate power generation market more broadly mainly due to its relatively high cost. In the present study, a market simulation method is proposed to find the marginal conditions and policy to promote NG utilization for power generation. In the proposed method, their impacts of technology improvement, pricing mechanism and carbon on the economic performance of gas power are analyzed. The prerequisite of the market simulation is that the profit of power producers won’t decrease when using NG to replace coal. Based on the obtained analysis results, policy analysis is conducted from the points of natural gas pricing reform, electricity pricing reform and carbon tax mechanism. The electricity company will be motivated to generate more NG-fired electricity through higher carbon tax, lower NG fuel cost and higher operation hour of each unit.