دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 50381
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

اطلاعات نامتقارن و انتظارات عقلایی: چه زمانی حق اشتباه وجود دارد؟

عنوان انگلیسی
Asymmetric information and rational expectations: When is it right to be “wrong”? ☆
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
50381 2008 13 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 27, Issue 8, December 2008, Pages 1407–1419

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
اولویت های عدم قطعیت بانک مرکزی - هم ارزی اطمینان - انتظارات عقلایی
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
E52; E58Central Bank preference uncertainty; Certainty equivalence; Rational expectations
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  اطلاعات نامتقارن و انتظارات عقلایی: چه زمانی حق اشتباه وجود دارد؟

چکیده انگلیسی

In this paper we examine the effects of private agents being less than fully rational in their expectations. We examine this in the context of monetary policy, where the Central Bank may have uncertain preferences either by choice or by necessity. The new feature is that we allow the public to react in two different ways. They either form rational expectations and internalize the uncertainty about the Central Bank's preferences in full; or alternatively, and if this process of internalization is costly, it forms a ‘best’ guess regarding those preferences. This implies a certainty equivalence strategy applied to the preference parameters. As those parameters enter the decisions non-linearly, a systematic error emerges. We examine the magnitude of the resulting error in inflation and output, following the assumption of certainty equivalence. Under all reasonable levels of uncertainty, this error turns out to be small but involves trading a deflation bias against the cost of gathering the information needed for the full information rational expectations' solution.