اثرات منطقه ای یکپارچه سازی اقتصادی: مورد برزیل

In this paper, alternative strategies of economic integration are evaluated from the Brazilian perspective. Traditional trade gains and losses are considered in a cost-competitiveness approach, based on relative changes in the industrial cost and demand structures. In the first part of the analysis, a national CGE model is used in order to assess the first-round impacts of three alternative trade liberalization scenarios. In the second part, a Machlup–Goodwin-type interregional model is integrated to the CGE model in order to generate a top-down disaggregation of the national results. Spatial implications of the trade policies are assessed, showing that the trade strategies examined are likely to increase regional inequality in the country.