برنامه ریزی انرژی های تجدیدپذیر در سیستم برق برای توسعه پایدار تحت عدم قطعیت - مطالعه موردی از پکن

An interval type-2 fuzzy fractional programming (IT2FFP) method is developed for planning the renewable energy in electric power system for supporting sustainable development under uncertainty. IT2FFP can tackle output/input ratio problems where complex uncertainties are expressed as type-2 fuzzy intervals (T2FI) with uncertain membership functions. The IT2FFP method is then applied to planning Beijing electric power system, where issues of renewable energy utilization, electricity supply security, and pollutant/greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation are incorporated within the modeling formulation. The obtained results suggest that the coal-fired power would continue to decrease and the share of renewable energy in gross electricity supply would maintain an increasing trend. Results also reveal that imported electricity plays a significant role in the city’s energy supply. A number of decision alternatives are also analyzed based on the interval solutions as well as the projected applicable conditions, which represent multiple options with sustainable and economic considerations. The optimal alternative that can give rise to the desirable sustainable option under the maximization of the share of renewable power generation has been suggested. The findings can help decision makers identify desired alternatives for managing such a mixed energy system in association with sustainable development. Compared with the conventional optimization methods that optimize single criterion, it is proved that IT2FFP is advantageous in balancing conflicting objectives and reflecting complicated relationships among multiple system factors as well as in tackling various subjective judgments of decision makers with different interests and preferences.