رویکرد مبتنی بر ANP-فازی برای ارزیابی ریسک خشکسالی کشاورزی منطقه

With the global climate change, drought disasters occur frequently and caused huge economic loss. In this paper, a drought risk assessment model based on fuzzy Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is put forward. ANP is an extension of AHP method and can more reasonably reflect the interdependence between the same layers of evaluation index system. The index system of agricultural drought risk assessment is established. An application is demonstrated by Hunan Province agricultural drought in China from 2007 to 2009. The result shows that the method is effective for agricultural drought risk assessment.

Drought disaster is one of the most seriously natural disasters and become an important factor affecting the safety of water resources. It has an important impact on the development of world instabilityand becomes bottleneck of the sustainable development of national economy. China is one of thecountries where drought disasters occur particularly frequently. According to statistics, the tremendousdrought has occurred 1056 times and severe drought occurred averagely every two years within the 2155years from 206 BC to 1949[1-2]. Among the five climatic disasters (drought, flood, typhoon, cold damage,heat wave) in the statistics from 1949 to 2005, the frequency of droughts is most frequently and aboutone-third of the total frequency of disasters[3]. Especially in the recent years, drought disasterscontinuously happen and cause serious impact to people’s production and life. For example, 2009-2010, in the southwest of China, the five regions(Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Sichuan and Chongqing)happened serious droughts. Therefore, it is significant to reduce drought risk by drought risk assessment,and adopt effective disaster prevention measures. In recent studies, many researchers applied ANP todecision-making problems [4-7]. In this paper, a drought risk assessment model based on fuzzy analyticnetwork process (ANP) method was put forward and applied to assessment Hunan Province agriculturaldrought in China.

In this paper, the drought disaster risk evaluation index is put forward. The network layer indicatorsare influenced each other, interdependence, constitute the drought disaster risk evaluation of the mainindex. The indexes weights of drought disaster are computed by the ANP method. This will be helpful totake effective measures, disaster prevention and mitigation. The case study of Hunan Provinceagricultural drought in China shows that the method is an effective evaluation method for agriculturaldrought risk assessment and can be used in other regions. However, agricultural drought risk factorsinfluence is complex and the influence degree is uncertainty, so quantitative evaluation index system isvital to further research in future.