مدل رویکردی برای تجزیه و تحلیل روند در عرضه و تقاضای انرژی در سطح کشور : مطالعه موردی از توسعه صنعتی در چین

Ideally, national energy supply and demand choices would be based on comprehensive models and predictions of the energy sources, energy transformations, energy carriers and energy end-uses expected to play major roles into the foreseeable future (20–40 years). However, in many cases, the necessary detailed, high quality, consistent and timely data is not available for such comprehensive models to be constructed, in particular in large and complex developing economies expected to be major energy users in the near future. In the developing countries that are the focus of UNIDO's work, attention has been concentrated on making progress simultaneously on two fronts: (a) a dramatic decrease in energy intensity, particularly in activities linked to industrial production and (b) a major increase in the contribution of local renewable energy to limit growth in fossil fuel use. National policies need to be oriented towards a strict and strategic monitoring of the respective energy matrices with a simultaneous focus on both fronts. Robust assessments of industrial development trends throughout the whole 20–40 year transition phase are needed to achieve both objectives. Until more comprehensive energy-related models can be built up, to overcome the limited availability of data at country level it is proposed that a simple energy supply and demand model analysis consisting of three phases be used for identifying the consistency of future scenarios and corresponding policy requirements. This model analysis, which is a dynamic exercise, consists, first, of an analysis at aggregate level of the current and future national energy matrices; secondly, an analysis of perspectives for decreasing the energy intensity of the most inefficient systems or industrial sectors; and thirdly, an analysis of perspectives for increasing the supply and cost-effectiveness of sustainable energy sources. As an illustration of this model approach, the case of China is analysed with emphasis on the industrial sector, followed by a discussion of some of the structural change policies indicated for China to reach its planned energy supply and demand objectives for 2020.

There are a number of key challenges underway in the global, regional and national energy supply and demand situations. The need to make deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is gathering force. An immediate impetus is the Kyoto Protocol, which sets binding targets for most developed countries for 2008–2012, and the discussions now underway as to the size and distribution of future GHG cuts from 2013. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) are making GHG reductions a growing cash flow component of renewable energy projects worldwide. New approved methodologies being developed for CDM will start to give industrial energy efficiency projects in developing countries a similar extra cash flow component, to help unlock this huge and highly cost effective, but complex, potential. In many developing countries there is often a strong reliance on oil for industrial electricity generation and process steam supply, although the efficiency of captive generation plants can be as low as 16% (ADB, 2005). Hence the recent increase in oil prices has a disproportionate impact on their industrial sector profitability. Oil prices, however, are expected to remain volatile, partly from difficulties in maintaining output levels, and partly from the huge capital investments required to expand oil supply and refining (IEA, 2006a). The impact of higher gas prices is also affecting the manufacturing of major industrial petrochemical products such as urea fertilizer (ADB, 2006a). Coal is plentiful and widely distributed, but growing business-as-usual conventional coal use is clearly incompatible with global GHG reduction goals. There are a number of mature renewable energy technologies now widely available, in particular hydro and wind. Bio-energy and photovoltaics are growing strongly and look likely to make a major energy supply contribution in coming decades. In the longer term, the hydrogen economy, based on renewable energy, shows promise (Gielen and Simbolotti, 2005), although mobile applications may prove challenging (Doty, 2004). The next 20–40 years will have to be a global transition period to more sustainable energy supply and demand patterns. This demands pursuing two major courses: a considerable decrease in energy intensity, particularly in activities linked to industrial production and a major increase in the contribution of renewable energy to limit use of fossil fuels and corresponding emissions of GHG and local pollution. In line with these, national policies need to be oriented towards a strict and strategic monitoring of energy matrices, with a focus on radical improvement in the efficiency of energy systems, particularly in manufacturing, in key developing economies, combined with sustainable and cost-efficient use of national energy resources. UNIDO's main concern is sustainable industrial development, with energy as one of the key inputs, for healthy industrial and, ultimately, economic development. For UNIDO, energy supply and use are perceived as part of overall industrial development, rather than as ends in themselves. Therefore, although fundamental, the assessment of the energy status of UNIDO Member States is considered only as one group of variables in a broader assessment of the perspectives for sustainable industrial development. However, when assessing the energy status in some of the countries assisted by UNIDO, it became clear that the energy data availability, quality and comparability were generally deficient for the detailed modelling exercises commonly utilized in more advanced economies. The questions about industrial energy addressed in this paper are two: (a) how to provide timely energy-related industrial development advice where the lack of reliable and consistent data for construction of the required detailed energy assessment models is a fact; and (b) how more systematically apply, in developing economies, the information from expert analysis to both industrial energy consumption and sustainable supply. The advantages of this framework are: (a) simplicity by working with probable macro scenarios at an aggregated level as this is more aligned with the data that is available with any reasonable level of confidence in many developing economies; and (b) providing real-time policy advice in rapidly changing economies. In the majority of countries where UNIDO operates, the non-availability of the reliable energy and technology data required by more complex analytical frameworks such as the MARKAL family of models1 (International Energy Agency, 2006b, DeLaquil et al., 2003 and Goldstein and Greening, 2001) is a fact. The same is true for econometric forecasting models, sectoral engineering stock models, engineering economic models and optimization and policy analysis “what-if” models. In addition, developing detailed energy supply and demand models requires massive resources and many years, particularly in the case of large and complex developing economies. The case of China is illustrative. Among several initiatives in the country (DeLaquil et al., 2003), Tsinghua University is developing a MARKAL framework energy supply and demand model (Chen and Wu, 2001). However, this exercise has already taken some years and seems unlikely to produce comprehensive results until more detailed and reliable input information is obtained and periodically updated. In UNIDO's assessment in China, part of the information available has come from government sources based on similar initiatives as the one at Tsinghua. However, UNIDO, among other institutions, could not wait for such detailed integrated models to become available as it needed to work with the Government on strategic issues related to industrial development, where energy is an essential factor, beginning with the tenth five-year plan (FYP), covering January 2001 to December 2006 and continuing into the eleventh FYP, covering January 2006 to December 2010. The disadvantages of the proposed framework are also twofold: (a) aggregated and macro scenarios also lead to a questionable degree of reliability, particularly for the fact that they include, to a great extent, non-technical information provided by government plans; and (b) although faster in responding to policy requirements, if the exercise is not properly monitored throughout the movement from the present to the future energy matrices, the implementation of the recommended policies will not lead to the desired results. In addition, the proposed approach should not be perceived as an alternative, but rather as an intermediary step to more traditional energy-related models. Optimization and hybrid models as the case of MARKAL and the MARKAL-MACRO, iterative equilibrium and simulation models as ENPEP2, or accounting framework models as LEAP3, among others, despite the advantages and disadvantages in each case, are more comprehensive approaches to the challenges involved in energy sector analyses and should be used always possible at the discretion of the corresponding national authorities. The remainder of this article describes UNIDO's approach to advising its developing Member States on energy-related issues. Section 2 provides a general description of UNIDO's approach. Section 3 describes the application of UNIDO's approach to China, through three specific examples and corresponding analysis and implications to policy decisions. And Section 4 provides concluding remarks.

The next 20–40 years will have to be a global transition period to more sustainable energy supply and demand patterns with two major courses simultaneously: a decrease in energy intensity and an increase in the contribution of renewable energy. Robust assessments of likely industrial trends and corresponding indications of energy supply and use throughout this transition phase are necessary to achieve both objectives. To overcome the limited availability and inconsistencies of data in countries being assisted by UNIDO, a simple energy supply and demand model analysis focusing on the corresponding implications in terms of policy has been adopted. The proposed approach should not be perceived as an alternative, but rather as an intermediary step to more traditional and comprehensive energy-related models. This model analysis, which is dynamic and consisting of three phases, can be applied to any economy for assessing the consistency of future scenarios and policy requirements to reduce energy intensity while simultaneously promoting cost-efficient use of sustainable (i.e., renewable) energy sources. The model consists of an analysis at aggregate level of current and future national energy matrices, followed by analyses of the two pillars used to reach the future matrix. The latter consist at an analysis through the energy use optimization cycle of prospects for decreasing the energy intensity of the most inefficient systems or industrial sectors, and another through the energy supply optimization cycle of prospects for increasing the supply and cost-effectiveness of sustainable energy sources. Each cycle is considered from four perspectives: diagnosis and assessment; tech-knowledge absorption and development; policy formulation; and policy implementation. The combination of these three phases, which is proposed to be carried out continuously, as a monitoring mechanism, and involving the sum of expert analysis of individual systems in the country, leads to a systematic assessment of the energy status and prospects for a country. As an illustration of the model approach, the case of China is analysed, and three specific examples were given. They illustrate that the continuous application of the cycles can lead to a reasonable indication of the likelihood of moving successfully from current to future matrices, as well as the required policies to reach some of the key government objectives. The main reason for working with macro and aggregated scenarios in UNIDO's assessments is that waiting for a detailed energy supply and use modelling exercise in the case of large and complex developing economies would lead to years of delay. Furthermore, there would be also a highly questionable degree of confidence in the results from the difficulty of obtaining consistent energy supply and demand data and keeping up with the rapidly developing economic structure and energy systems. Consequently, it would be much more difficult, for UNIDO, to provide timely policy advice in the absence of such reliable, detailed and up-to-date energy supply and use figures to the majority of its Member States on issues where energy is likely to be a constraint for their industrial and overall economic development.