تجزیه و تحلیل سلسله مراتبی و استراتژی هایی بر اساس عدم تعادل بین عرضه و تقاضا ترافیک شهری

It is well-known that traffic congestion results from the imbalance between supply and demand of urban traffic. However, the phenomenon of “shifting the burden” exists in urban traffic management. This phenomenon stems from the lack of understanding of the essential cause of traffic imbalance and the validity evaluation of the traffic strategies. To probe the essence of traffic imbalance, traffic imbalance concept is classified into structural imbalance and coupling imbalance. It is also pointed out that game relationships with conflict of interest and dynamic reaction between traffic suppliers and travelers exist. Based on the effect analysis of game relationships on the urban traffic, the hierarchical strategy frame is proposed to balance the relationship between traffic supply and demand.

It is well known that the urban traffic system is the lifeline of a city, which plays a key role in maintaining economic development and the citizens’ daily lives. People’s demand on traffic is increasing sharply with the rapid development of national economy and the speedup of civilization in China. Unfortunately, traffic jams appear frequently and the contradiction between traffic supply and demand is becoming increasingly serious owing to the inherent limitation and time delay characteristics of traffic supply. How to mitigate urban traffic congestion has been constantly investigated by several scholars and practitioners in the world [1－17]. However, the previous research in this field lacks a clear hierarchy framework, which often results in the occurrence of “shifting the burden” phenomenon in the course of traffic management. In this paper, the factors that may cause the imbalance between urban traffic supply and demand are classified by the use of the systematic analysis approach. A system framework with two hierarchies is established and two key reasons that lead to “shifting the burden” phenomenon are presented. It is seen that there is a game relationship between traffic supplier and travelers with the conflict of interest and dynamic responsive characteristics. After analyzing the impacts of this game relationship on the supply-demand balance of urban traffic, the strategic framework of how to adjust the balance between urban traffic supply and demand from the two hierarchies is provided.

Various factors may affect the balance between the supply and demand of urban traffic. These factors can be classified into two basic types: the structural imbalance and the coupling imbalance. Moreover, the basis for the integrated analysis of the urban traffic supply-demand imbalance is to study the mechanism of the coupling imbalances. To solve the imbalance, one has to find the cause of the imbalance and then figure out the validity of the control strategies prior to implementation. However, the previous research has overlooked the dynamic feature of the conflict in interest and the interactive decision process between traffic administrators and travelers, inevitably bringing about limitations. Hence, a game model of urban traffic supply demand relationship must be set up, which can illustrate the dynamic evolutionary relationship among traveler groups, and is helpful to understand the mechanism of urban traffic supply demand balance and its control. It may help traffic administrators to make effective management strategies to control and coordinate the development of the supply and demand of urban traffic.