آینده عرضه و تقاضای استخدامی در اروپا اجتماعی

The assessment of employment prospects during the period up to 2020 needs to take into account the effects of the 2008/2009 downturn. We propose two scenarios that capture distinctive trajectories in order to elucidate some of the potential strategic demands for future employment policy. We forecast the average level of education of the working-age population will increase significantly during this decade and therefore the mismatch between the needs and supply of skills is likely to be significantly reduced. Furthermore, the inherent mobility of the working population will increase together with higher levels of education.

The labour market is subject to various long-run shaping factors that affect demand for labour, supply of labour and the organisation of economic activity. Some of these offer prospects of progress towards social objectives consistent with a modernised European social model, while others constitute threats or obstacles that may result in sub-optimal outcomes. But all of them pose challenges to policy-makers. This paper will address some of them. The main trends that employment policy has to face over the coming decade include demographic and social changes affecting the supply of labour; changing gender roles; globalisation as a source of intensified competitive pressures; innovation and the adoption of new technologies that have the potential of altering patterns of working; accelerated structural change in the specialisations of economies and in the organisation of economic activity, in particular, the consequences of the transition to a knowledge economy and climate change and the future of energy supply and use [7]. Further, the 2008/9 recession will have a profound impact on the labour market for several years to come and its direct effects on unemployment have not been fully felt yet. Once unemployment (always a lagging variable) reaches its peak, net job creation will also return and many of the longer-term structural factors that were already affecting the labour market will then re-assert themselves. As a result, future employment strategies will have to strike a balance between short-term responses to the crisis and its immediate aftermath and medium- to longer-term effects.

Our empirical and prospective analysis shows that, on the one hand, basic challenges in employment policy remain mainly the same than in the pre-recession period, but, on the other hand, the crisis has revealed new challenges that will need to be faced by innovative policy approaches. Despite the crisis, the main drivers and medium-term challenges are, essentially, the following: ageing, societal changes, globalisation, shift to a knowledge society, management of natural resources and the fight against pollution and climate change. The contours of the labour market in 2020 will be determined, in addition to these main drivers, by the upgrading of the average level of education of the working-age population and the associated boost of demand for high-skilled workers and skill-induced technological innovation. However, mainly due to the shifts in consumer demand and social provision resulting from a doubling of the 65+ population, even the emerging pathways of such effect are unclear [5]. However, the demand for unskilled labour will increase in the field of personal services as Simonazzi (in this issue) discusses. Further, the recovery of the economy and employment may not follow the same pattern in all Member States. For some, the recession will be more easily surmounted, while others will experience an enduring impact of the crisis (“a lost decade” – scenario 1), with important external and internal adjustment problems and long-lasting and painful adaptation of priorities. Given that the average level of education of the working-age population is projected to increase significantly during this decade the mismatch between the needs for and the supply of skills is likely to be significantly reduced. Furthermore, the inherent mobility of the working population will increase together with higher levels of education.