پیش بینی توزیع فرکانس صاف قوی در یک بخش کنترل برای عملیات قطار با استفاده از اندازه گیری در محل و شبیه سازی عددی

In this study, a prediction method for strong wind using onsite measurement and numerical simulation is used to take account of the effects of complex terrain. The predicted maximum winds agree well with the measurements. A time series based method is proposed to predict the frequency of exceedance of strong crosswind in a control section. The predicted frequency of exceedance of strong crosswind agrees well with the measurements, while conventional methods based on only statistical data underestimate or overestimate the frequency. The proposed method is applied in order to estimate the regulation frequency in train operation, considering train speed, wind direction, and windbreaks. The regulation frequency at a target control section of 6 km decreases from 0.16% to 0.14% when the train speed is reduced. The frequency decreases from 0.16% to 0.11% if the wind direction is considered. The construction of the windbreaks decreases the frequency further to 0.08%.