دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 152815
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

ارزیابی ریسک بیش از حد مجتمع قدرت سیستم مجتمع با استفاده از جریان بار احتمالی بر اساس مدل سازی عدم اطمینان فوری چند زمانه

عنوان انگلیسی
An over-limit risk assessment of PV integrated power system using probabilistic load flow based on multi-time instant uncertainty modeling
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
152815 2018 17 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Renewable Energy, Volume 116, Part A, February 2018, Pages 367-383

پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  ارزیابی ریسک بیش از حد مجتمع قدرت سیستم مجتمع با استفاده از جریان بار احتمالی بر اساس مدل سازی عدم اطمینان فوری چند زمانه

چکیده انگلیسی

In this paper, the risk assessment of a PV integrated power system is accomplished by computing the over-limit probabilities and the severities of events such as under-voltage, over-voltage, over-load, and thermal over-load. These aspects are computed by performing temperature-augmented probabilistic load flow (TPLF) using Monte Carlo simulation. For TPLF, the historical data for PV generation, ambient temperature, and load power, each collected at twelve specific time instants of a day for the past five years are pre-processed by using three linear regression models for accurate uncertainty modeling. For PV generation data, the developed model is capable of filtering out the annual predictable periodic variation (owing to positioning of the Sun) and decreasing production trend due to ageing effect whereas, for ambient temperature and load power, the corresponding models accurately remove the annual cyclic variations in the data and their growth. The simulations pertaining to the aforesaid risk assessment are performed on a PV integrated New England 39-bus test system. The system over-limit risk indices are calculated for different PV penetrations and input correlations. In addition, the changes in the values of TPLF model parameters on the statistics of the result variables are analyzed. The risk indices so obtained help in executing necessary steps to reduce system risks for reliable operation.