دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 44201
عنوان فارسی مقاله

مقابله با عدم قطعیت-نمونه هایی از روش های مدل سازی در IIASA

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
44201 2015 10 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Coping with uncertainties-examples of modeling approaches at IIASA ☆
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 98, September 2015, Pages 213–222

کلمات کلیدی
درمان عدم قطعیت - مدل سازی - IIASA
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله مقابله با عدم قطعیت-نمونه هایی از روش های مدل سازی در IIASA

چکیده انگلیسی

Uncertainty is a pervasive characteristic of all research addressed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) which is at the core of this Special Issue. The role of science in better coping with uncertainty is twofold. First, to describe uncertainties as comprehensively and well as possible, both quantitatively and qualitatively; second, to develop methods that can lead to improved decision-making under uncertainty. Here increasingly the concept of “optimal” is replaced by one of “robust” decisions, i.e. decisions that make sense vis à vis multiple uncertainties. This paper illustrates selective examples from IIASA research that contribute to the twin objectives of a better description of uncertainty and improved decision-making under uncertainty, drawing from research in the fields of technology dynamics, climate change policy, as well as catastrophic risk management and portfolio analysis. The conclusions emphasize the need for a basic research strategy aimed at elucidating uncertainties in parameters as well as in alternative model representations, and in developing improved models for robust decision-making. Models of robust decision making emphasize risk hedging spatially and through a portfolio of policies and technology options.

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