دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 106630
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

دو مدل تصادفی جدید از روند شکست یک سیستم سری

عنوان انگلیسی
Two new stochastic models of the failure process of a series system
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
106630 2017 10 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : European Journal of Operational Research, Volume 257, Issue 3, 16 March 2017, Pages 763-772

پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  دو مدل تصادفی جدید از روند شکست یک سیستم سری

چکیده انگلیسی

Consider a series system consisting of sockets into each of which a component is inserted: if a component fails, it is replaced with a new identical one immediately and system operation resumes. An interesting question is: how to model the failure process of the system as a whole when the lifetime distribution of each component is unknown? This paper attempts to answer this question by developing two new models, for the cases of a specified and an unspecified number of sockets, respectively. It introduces the concept of a virtual component, which corresponds to the part of the system that is replaced upon system failure. It then discusses the probabilistic properties of the models and methods for parameter estimation. Based on six datasets of artificially generated system failures and a real-world dataset, the paper compares the performance of the proposed models with four other commonly used models: the renewal process, the geometric process, Kijima’s generalised renewal process, and the power law process. The results show that the proposed models outperform these comparators on the datasets, based on the Akaike information criterion.