دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 77483
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

خطای حسی دانش:چه وقتی اطلاعات بیشتر دقت را کاهش می دهد و باعث افزایش اعتماد به نفس می شود

عنوان انگلیسی
The illusion of knowledge: When more information reduces accuracy and increases confidence
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
77483 2007 14 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 103, Issue 2, July 2007, Pages 277–290

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
قضاوت تحت عدم قطعیت - دقت؛ اعتماد به نفس؛ تعصبات دانش؛ تعصبات آشنایی
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
Judgment under uncertainty; Accuracy; Confidence; Knowledge biases; Familiarity biases
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  خطای حسی دانش:چه وقتی اطلاعات بیشتر دقت را کاهش می دهد و باعث افزایش اعتماد به نفس می شود

چکیده انگلیسی

Intuition suggests that having more information can increase prediction accuracy of uncertain outcomes. In four experiments, we show that more knowledge can decrease accuracy and simultaneously increase prediction confidence. Participants were asked to predict basketball games sampled from a National Basketball Association season. All participants were provided with statistics (win record, halftime score), while half were additionally given the team names. Knowledge of names increased the confidence of basketball fans consistent with their belief that this knowledge improved their predictions. Contrary to this belief, it decreased the participants’ accuracy by reducing their reliance on statistical cues. One of the factors contributing to this underweighting of statistical cues was a bias to bet on more familiar teams against the statistical odds. Finally, in a real betting experiment, fans earned less money if they knew the team names while persisting in their belief that this knowledge improved their predictions.