دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 93257
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

هزینه های اقتصادی پاسخ های سیاست پولی جایگزین به حملات ارزشی استوار

عنوان انگلیسی
Economic costs of alternative monetary policy responses to speculative currency attacks
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
93257 2017 43 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 73, Part B, May 2017, Pages 419-434

پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  هزینه های اقتصادی پاسخ های سیاست پولی جایگزین به حملات ارزشی استوار

چکیده انگلیسی

The outcome of a speculative attack on the foreign exchange rate can be classified into three cases: (i) immediate depreciation of the nominal exchange rate, (ii) successful defense, or (iii) failed defense. This paper explores which of these outcomes yields the lowest cost in terms of output and unemployment in the short and medium run. Ex-ante the outcome of a speculative attack is uncertain, therefore the appropriate response of monetary authorities to a speculative attack depends on the cost of an immediate depreciation compared with that of the expected outcome of a currency defense. Our empirical analysis focuses on a sample of 73 emerging and developing countries over the 1960–2011 period. Our results indicate that an immediate depreciation is the policy response that is associated with a lower expected output loss and unemployment in the short run and it tends to be expansionary in the medium run. A defense, if successful, entails insignificant costs in the short run but, unlike an immediate depreciation, a successful defense is not expansionary in the medium run. If a defense fails, large output losses and an increase in unemployment ensue, at least in the short run.