اندازه گیری مصرف انرژی سرمایه گذاری داخلی چین از سال 1992 تا 2007

In this study, we first define the energy consumption of domestic investment as the investment-driven energy consumption (IDEC). Then, we build an energy input–output model to identify quantitatively the amounts of China’s IDEC from 1992 to 2007. We also use the model to analyze the sector distributions of the IDEC for the same time period. The key findings derived from this study improve the understanding of the effects of China’s domestic investment on its energy consumption expansion and reflect the fact that China’s rapid urbanization and industrialization processes are among the main reasons for the large amount of energy consumption in China. We provide some quantitative information for further determining the energy-saving potentials of China’s economy during these processes.

Energy conservation has been consistently regarded as one of the fundamental means in China to solve its energy-related challenges, such as energy supply shortage and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. [1] and [2]. During the last three decades, the Chinese government implemented a set of nationwide energy-intensity reduction policies, i.e., policies to reduce the energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), and the effects of these policies have been conspicuous since then [3]. Moreover, a new round of energy-intensity reduction initiatives was ambitiously launched at the beginning of the country’s Twelfth-Five-Year-Plan period (2011–2015) [4]. As shown in Fig. 1, China’s energy consumption continued increasing rapidly in recent years, although its energy-intensity declined dramatically in the same period. This decline is partially explained by the fact that China’s GDP increased rapidly during this period.1In recent years, China’s economic growth has been labelled investment-driven, because the capital formation, which is induced by domestic investment, has contributed greatly to the country’s GDP and growth [6]. On the one hand, the domestic investment helped to achieve China’s goal of energy-intensity reduction, because the ever-increasing volume of GDP presented a favorable condition for calculating energy-intensity. On the other hand, the domestic investment itself also led to the expansion of China’s energy consumption, because it consumed energy goods (such as electricity) and non-energy goods (such as steel and cement), both of which induce direct and indirect energy consumption to produce these goods. Therefore, compared with the understanding of the domestic investment’s economic effects, there is an urgent need to improve the understanding of the effects of China’s domestic investment on its energy-consumption expansion. Input–output analysis, a useful analytical and planning framework developed by Leontief [7], considers the various economic sectors as a series of inputs of source materials (or services) and outputs of final or intermediate goods (or services). Input–output analysis is based on input–output tables, which present economic exchanges of goods and services among industrial sectors in matrix form. In order to take into account both the direct and indirect effects of a growth in the output of an industry in one economy, Rasmussen [8] developed methods for measuring inter-industry linkages using the inverse of the input–output table. Hirschman [9] then suggested that backward-linkage effects are related to derived demand, while forward-linkage effects are related to output consumption. Because the input–output table conveniently provides an exact quantitative relationship between the energy producers and its users, many analysts have used input–output analysis to study the energy consumption caused by different economic activities [10], [11], [12], [13], [14] and [15]. For example, Pick and Becker [16] used input–output analysis to evaluate direct and indirect uses of energy and materials in engineering and construction. Other analysts have also conducted similar studies, either focusing on national or regional economies [17], [18], [19] and [20]. Among the empirical studies of China, analysts have already studied the effects of many economic activities on energy consumption. Polenske and McMichael [21], for example, designed a coke-making input–output process-flow model to understand the energy consumption, efficiency, and environmental pollution in the coke-making process, Chang et al. [22] estimated the embodied energy and environmental impacts of construction projects in China. Liu et al. [19] made a comprehensive evaluation of household indirect energy consumption and impacts of alternative energy policies in China. Liu et al. [23] evaluated the impacts of international trade on energy use and identified the underlying factors that contribute to modifying the energy embodied in exports over years. Chen and Zhang [24] built a GHG emission inventory by economic sector in China in 2007 to reveal systematically the GHG emission embodiment in final consumption and international trade of the Chinese economy, and Su et al. [25] investigated how sector aggregation affects estimates of energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions in international trade based on the input–output framework. However, few analysts have studied the investment effects, i.e., assessing the effects of China’s domestic investment on its energy consumption expansion. In this paper, we measure the energy consumption of China’s domestic investment, so as to provide critical insights for the country’s policy-makers to refine the current intensity-reduction-oriented energy-efficiency policies. We first define the energy consumption of domestic investment as the investment-driven energy consumption. Then, we build an energy input–output model to identify quantitatively the amounts of China’s investment-driven energy consumption in 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007. We also use the model to analyze the sector distributions of the investment-driven energy consumption for the same period.

The purpose of this study is to improve the understanding of the implications of China’s domestic investment on its energy-consumption expansion. To do this, we defined and differentiated the energy consumed by domestic investment from that consumed by other economic activities (i.e., final consumption and international trade) on the basis of the expenditure-approach. We also measured quantitatively China’s domestic investment-driven energy consumption of 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007 by using an energy input–output analysis. The overall results obtained from the energy input–output analysis show that China’s domestic investment contributed significantly to the country’s total energy consumption growth over our observation period. We also show an ever-increasing trend of the ratio of China’s domestic investment-driven energy consumption to its total energy consumption since 1990s. The sectoral-level results we obtained from the energy input–output analysis show that China’s construction sector and equipment manufacturing sector together accounted for more than 90% of its domestic investment-driven energy consumption in our observation period. The results reflect the fact that China’s rapid urbanization and industrialization has consumed a large amount of energy. Given this fact, we can conclude that the short lifespan of buildings and infrastructure [43], [44] and [45], and overcapacities in many Chinese industrial sectors [46] represent inefficient use of capital, energy, and other resources consumed by corresponding investment activities. Chinese policy makers should improve their design of the country’s energy efficiency policies in terms of determining the energy-saving potentials of China’s economy from the perspective that we present through this study.