تغییر جمعیت شناختی، آموزش و پرورش و رشد اقتصادی در تونس

This paper provides empirical evidence supporting the interaction between fertility, education and economic growth through the underlying mechanism behind that correlation in accordance with Becker's theory. In consistency with the theory, the key explanatory variables in Tunisia's fertility model are real GDP per capita, infant mortality, contraceptive use ratio, and education. As opposed to most empirical works, the present study takes into consideration three educational levels, i.e., primary, secondary and higher. Also unlike most empirical research, this study attempts to analyse the impact of fertility transition on education and economic growth. To deal with too little or incomplete data, time series data for Tunisia are computed over 45 years. A multivariate cointegration analysis is carried out and shows that a long-term triangular relationship exists. A short dynamic run analysis based on the vector correction error model displays results in coherence with and close to those of the long term. Among our key results, education is found to trigger fertility transition both in the short and long run. In addition, education has relatively fostered economic growth but hardly boosted it through its dynamic interaction with fertility. Furthermore, the variance decomposition and the impulse function show that the fertility transition has produced a feedback effect on both education and economic growth.

In the literature, the link between demographic transition, human capital accumulation and macroeconomic performance has continuously been emphasized.1 The term demographic transition describes the change that occurred from pre-industrial high fertility and mortality to post-industrial low fertility and mortality observed along economic development. Demographic transition is often believed to foster economic growth.2 In particular, the New Household Economics theory claims that the interaction between fertility and human capital accumulation leads to demographic transition and incites economic growth.3 Education may participate in declining fertility rate because it vehicles values in favour of socioeconomic advances in contrast to traditional ones.4 Human capital has also been found to affect demographic and economic growth through diverse channels. The most familiar channel, however, is related to the child quantity–quality trade-off within households (Becker, 1960) as well as gender. Accordingly, education is expected to raise wages and consequently motivates great concern with high child quality. Besides, it is assumed to boost the “price” of child quantity through increasing the opportunities cost of time devoted by women on child care (in terms of foregone labour force participation). Moreover, as the household decisions moved away from child quantity to child quality, a remarkable decline in population growth took place. An even more important channel works through the human capital return on technological progress. Indeed, the choice made by parents concerning child education affects the pace of technological progress. For example, an augmentation in human capital accelerates technological progress, which in turn raises the human capital return and thus induces the substitution of child quality for child quantity characterizing demographic transition. Another channel is through the negative education effect on mortality. Finally, human capital accumulation is one of the prime engines for economic growth as a major production factor. In addition, human capital accumulation can indirectly spur economic growth through accelerating demographic transition. Indeed, demographic transition affects the economic performance of a country in a number of ways. During the transition, households are more willing to reduce the number of children in order to foster education and ensure better human capital for the few remaining children. Therefore, they accumulate more human capital, which accelerates economic growth. Moreover, the fertility decline lowers the dependency ratio and increases the proportion of the working age population and, consequently, the availability of economically productive time. These changes have a great impact on economic growth (Nerlove and Raut, 1993). Besides, a low population growth reduces physical capital sharing among individuals and increases income per capita. Demographic transition in Tunisia was fast. Over the last five decades, the population rate decreased to a low and stable level of around 1.18 percent, while fertility fell down to the population replacement threshold. Meanwhile, education development and economic growth were prompt. The schooling rate of the age group 6–11 rose from 29 percent to 97.7 percent and the GNP rose from about 87 to 5048.6 dinars per capita. Tunisia presents a successful example of demographic evolution and education generalization which will provide some insights about Arabic developing countries in the MENA regions. Similarly, the case is of interest in regard to the lack of related quantitative analyses. Did education change fertility behaviour and thus contribute to the demographic transition? Does a long-run causal triangular relation exist between fertility, education and economic growth? Did Tunisia benefit from the economic opportunities of the demographic transition? In accordance with Becker's theory, the present study empirically tests the interaction between fertility–education and economic growth through the underlying mechanism behind that link. The paper does not aim at analysing the education–fertility interaction. Rather, it seeks to investigate the link between demographic changes and macroeconomic performance through analysing the education–fertility interaction. The paper aims at providing explicit evidence justifying the dynamic education–fertility relationship and its role in accelerating fertility transition, checking the impact of this dynamic relationship on economic growth. Moreover, it attempts to verify the transition feedback on education and economic growth. It is worth noting that the present empirical analysis improves upon earlier studies by enlarging the model specification by considering the three education levels. Our methodology applies a time series modelling approach to check out the triangular relationship between demographic transition, education and economic growth. The perspective is challenged by the long- and short-run dynamic causalities. Thus, a double analysis is undertaken by using the cointegration technique to exhibit a long-run equilibrium relationship between variables and the error correction model to capture the short-run adjustment mechanism. Furthermore, to measure and trace the effect of an innovation on the present and future values of the variables, the variance decomposition and impulse response function techniques are adopted. This empirical evidence is carried out over the period 1963–2007. This study makes three novel contributions. First, it is the first study that models the fertility rate for Tunisia within a time series framework using a cointegration and error correction modelling strategy. Second, for the first time in the literature, the three education levels are used (primary, secondary and higher). Third, this study is among the first attempts to explore the fertility transition feedback empirically. Existing studies using time series estimation methodology have concentrated on the causes and dynamics of fertility decline.5 The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: in Section 2, we document the Tunisian demographic and socioeconomic context. Next, in Section 3, we present the theoretical framework, while in Section 4 we discuss the data construction. In Section 5 we expose the econometric methodology and display the results. Section 6 draws major conclusions, summarizes the main findings and proposes policy implications.

This paper aims at highlighting the link between demographic changes and macroeconomic performances via the education–fertility interaction (using Tunisian time series data). In the Tunisian context, a dynamic triangular relationship between fertility, education and economic growth is confirmed. Besides, fertility and education enjoy a long-term dynamic interaction towards long-term equilibrium. The adjustment process towards equilibrium occurred progressively, referring to the VEC estimation. In accordance with previous results, education–fertility has a long-term reversed U relationship. Education triggers fertility transition both in the long and short term. Moreover, the generalization of education and family planning services has improved health and fostered the demographic transition. Results also reveal a dominant and direct positive effect of income on fertility and show that infant mortality decline and contraceptive use take time to impinge fertility towards decline. This suggests that fertility transition is more determined by education enhancement than by the rise in living standards. Accordingly, the VDC and IRF techniques demonstrated that fertility transition in Tunisia is determined by a mixed influence of economic changes, education development and family planning policies. In particular, the education–fertility dynamic interaction is more intense in the long than in the short term and is, in fact, more pronounced as the education level rises and the income impact becomes more intense. Moreover, the analysis proved that education has a more significant impact on fertility than fertility has on education and that fertility has a more pronounced impact on economic growth than growth has on fertility. This empirical work proves that the education–fertility interaction explains demographic transition and economic growth and that fertility behaviour is directed by the negative interaction between quantity–quality of children. Unfortunately, however, the Tunisian education system has relatively impinged the long-term economic growth process as it has indirectly reinforced it through its interaction with fertility. Education improvement has been slightly translated into the human capital formation required to increase productivity. This fertility decline, driven and amplified by education development, has in turn fostered economic growth. Interestingly, the statistical finding is in favour of the critical importance of the combined role of education and fertility in spurring economic growth. Fertility transition has produced positive feedback effects on human capital and economic growth by changing the age structure in favour of education development, high productivity and capital efficiency. This may allow the Tunisian economy to benefit from the demographic transition dividends. Population dynamics are a key factor in determining economic growth. These major findings imply strong policy implications in order to better capitalize economic demographic transition opportunities. Government should develop the requirement synergy between labour market, education system and professional formation. This will enhance labour force productivity and contribute to the economic growth process. Also, to sustain the economic growth process, it is necessary to improve the quality of the reduced quantity of children. For this purpose, the adopted policy of mass education must be replaced by a policy in favour of education quality. As for women’s position in the labour market, it should be reinforced by reconsidering their insertion. This study provides basic information regarding the Tunisian prospects of demographic evolution and macroeconomic performance. In particular, Tunisia is beginning her modern regime experience, which is considered as a sign of development but also of hard economic pressures due to the rapid increase of the dependent elderly ratio. To overcome these expected economic pressures, the Tunisian government should be aware of the impact of the ageing population on the labour market, the security system and the financial market. It is recommended to focus on adopting consistent social and economic accompaniment policies rather than trying to alter demographic evolution.