تجزیه و تحلیل هزینه و فایده از اجرای سیستم انرژی خورشیدی فتوولتائیک در کشور کویت

In addition to the high financial cost of energy resources required to meet the rising demand for electricity consumption in Kuwait, the negative environmental impact of fossil fuel is increasing. Hence, the objective of this paper is to determine the economic feasibility and viability of implementing PV solar energy in the State of Kuwait. It was found that the positive characteristics of solar radiation in Kuwait play a critical role in enhancing the feasibility of implementing solar systems. Under the present price of 5$/W and 15% efficiency, the LCOE of a 1 MW station is estimated to be around $0.20/kWh. This LCOE can be feasible only when the cost of oil is around 100$/barrel. The Cost Benefit Analysis showed that when the value of saved energy resources used in producing traditional electricity, and the cost of lowering CO2 emissions are accounted for, the true economic cost of LCOE of a PV system will decline significantly. The preliminary economic analysis recommends the implementation of PV technology in Kuwait.

Kuwait is a small open economy that is rich in hydrocarbon resources with proven crude oil reserves estimated to be around 104 billion barrels (9% of the total world oil reserves)1. While Kuwait is a major oil exporter, it also consumes a huge amount of its natural hydrocarbon resources to meet the rising demand for energy, in particular in the electrical power. Kuwait’s total primary energy consumption reached around 195 million barrels oil equivalent in 2008 [1]. The energy requirements are met using available hydrocarbon resources, such as crude oil, natural gas, and fuel oil. However, most of the energy requirements are for electrical power generation. Assuming crude oil price per barrel at US$ 50, the total cost of primary energy sources is estimated to be nearly US$ 9 billions (around 10% of GDP in 2008). In addition to the huge value of the consumed and depleted resources, the large amount of fossil fuels consumed is negatively impacting Kuwait’s local environment, through the emission of carbon dioxide, NOx and SOx gases. Kuwait’s global image is also impacted since the country is rated as the third highest CO2 emitter per capita in the world. Over the last five decades, total consumption of electricity in Kuwait has increased drastically. Between 1960 and 2008, total consumption of electricity increased from 380 to 45,234 million kWh. The rise in consumption was largely due to increases in both per capita consumption and population. In 2008, annual per capita consumption of electricity was 13,142 kWh, and since 2000, it has increased at a rate of 6.8% per annum. During the same period, Kuwait’s population increased at an average growth rate of 3.9% per annum. The growth rate in per capita consumption has surpassed the population and GDP growth rates. Several factors have influenced the accelerated rise in electricity consumption; the most important of these factors is the government electricity and water subsidy program. Since 1966, the government has subsidized more than 95% of the cost of electricity. Citizens and residents pay only 2 Fills/kWh (less than $0.01 or 1 Cent) out of the actual cost of producing electricity 34 Fills/kWh ($0.12/kWh). This public policy which aimed at increasing the public social welfare is characterized with a lack of energy conservation efforts and resulted in immense waste of natural resources in terms of allocation and efficient utilization. Moreover, the ineffective collection of electricity bills, where only 55% is collected in the past few years, enforced the irresponsible consumption of electricity by the public [2]. A number of studies have examined the factors affecting the demand for electricity in Kuwait [3], [4], [5] and [6]. In general, these studies have taken per capita annual electricity consumption as the dependent variable, and to introduce variation in the nominal electricity price, real electricity price has been used as the independent variable. The main findings of these studies are that electricity demand is inelastic with respect to changes in income or real electricity price. A reform of the electricity and water subsidy program has been emphasized by all studies. However, no studies have examined the economic suitability of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) for generating electricity in Kuwait. In particular, the economic cost and benefit of producing electricity with solar energy has not been addressed appropriately. Due to the abundance of hydrocarbon resources in Kuwait, the implementation of RES has always been viewed negatively by policy makers. Nonetheless, this view is changing as demand for green energy and the costs of fossil energy are increasing. This paper intends to examine the cost benefit analysis of implementing solar energy in Kuwait to meet part of the growing demand for electricity. Among RES, solar energy is possibly the most suitable for the climatic conditions in Kuwait. Kuwait’s annual solar irradiation is estimated at around 2100–2200 kWh/m2. The average daily irradiation (direct normal) is also very high compared with countries that are currently among the main users of solar energy such as Germany and Spain. More significantly, Kuwait is rated as excellent in terms of its potential appropriateness for solar thermal power plants due to the high average daily irradiation and average high ambient temperatures [7]. Recognizing both the environmental and climatic hazards to be faced in the coming decades and the continued depletion of the world’s most valuable fossil energy resources, Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrate Solar Power (CSP) can provide critical solutions to electricity supply in Kuwait within relatively short time frame. Therefore, it is the objective of this paper to verify the economic feasibility of implementing PV solar power in the State of Kuwait, and to examine the economic benefit of solar energy. The rest of the paper will be structured according to the following: Section 2 presents the status of the Photovoltaic solar modules market and analyze the trends in its cost and efficiency. Section 3 examines the economic feasibility of implementing PV solar power in the State of Kuwait by determining the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Section 4 presents the cost benefit analysis of implementing PV solar system in the State of Kuwait. Section 5 evaluates the economic viability of solar energy. Finally, section 6 presents the main conclusions and recommendations.

Over the years, the demand for electricity in Kuwait has been increasing drastically. PV solar application can produce energy that will meet part of this demand. Moreover, implementation of PV solar power will contribute substantially to CO2 reduction efforts in Kuwait, and can reduce the pressure on current power stations to generate electricity. The analysis showed that the positive characteristics of solar radiation in Kuwait play a critical role in enhancing the feasibility of implementing solar systems. The excellent solar conditions should increase the peak hour output of the solar stations and consequently lower the LCOE produced. The feasibility of a 1 MW PV station can be achieved under the present price (5$/W and 15% efficiency), only when the cost of oil is around $100 per barrel. The LCOE of a 1 MW station is around $0.20/kWh. The CBA showed that when the value of saved energy resources used in producing traditional electricity (0.09 $/kWh), and the cost of CO2 emissions (0.02 $/kWh) are accounted for, the true economic cost of LCOE of a PV system will decline significantly (0.17–0.05 $/kWh). In the case of a PV station with a cost of 5 $/W, the economic benefit will lower the LCOE from 0.20 $/kWh to 0.09 $/kWh. Finally, implantation of PV solar energy will improve Kuwait’s global image as one of the highest CO2 emitter per capita and can also decrease dependence on fossil fuel to produce electricity. These actions will set Kuwait among the pioneers within the oil exporting countries in utilizing renewable solar energy for domestic consumption. Furthermore, it will mitigate the image of oil exporting countries excessive and irrational consumption of fossil fuel. Hence, based on this preliminary analysis the study recommends the implementation of PV solar system in Kuwait in order to diversify sources of energy.