قرارداد تقاضای بلند برای مصرف کنندگان بزرگ براساس ترکیبی از یک مدل آماری و یک مدل بهینه سازی تصادفی برنامه ریزی خطی مختلط ترکیبی محاسبه شده

In the first part, a Box & Jenkins model is used to estimate the parameters of the statistical model and to simulate it based on the historical electricity bill data. In the second part, a stochastic optimization model is applied using a convex combination of the Expected Value and Conditional Value-at-Risk, as the risk metrics for the cost uncertainty, in order to obtain the monthly values of peak demand contracted. The results achieved corroborate the importance of using an appropriate mathematical model to address the problem. To illustrate the proposed approach, a real case study for a big consumer in Brazil is presented.