مدیریت یکپارچه ریسک ایمنی و توسعه در حوضه حمل و نقل

Prioritization of investments to protect safety and performance of multi-regional transportation networks from adjacent land development is a key concern for infrastructure agencies, land developers, and other stakeholders. Despite ample literature describing relationships between transportation and land use, no evidence-based methods exist for monitoring corridor needs on a large scale. Risk analysis is essential to the preservation of system safety and capacity, including avoidance of costly retrofits, regret, and belated action. This paper introduces the Corridor Trace Analysis (CTA) for prioritizing corridor segments that are vulnerable to adjacent land development. The method integrates several components: (i) estimation of likelihood of adjacent land development, using influence diagram and rule-based modeling, (ii) characterization of access point density using geospatial methods, and (iii) plural-model evaluation of corridors, monitoring indices of land development likelihood, access point densities, and traffic volumes. The results inform deployment of options that include closing access points, restricting development, and negotiation of agencies and developers. The CTA method is demonstrated on a region encompassing 6000 centerline miles (about 10,000 km) of transportation corridors. The method will be of interest to managers investing in safety and performance of infrastructure systems, balancing safety, financial, and other criteria of concern for diverse stakeholders.