توسعه و کاربرد یک مدل شبیه سازی برای کشتی های تنگه سنگاپور

The traffic volume in the Singapore Strait will be significantly increased according to the prediction by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Therefore, it is important for the maritime authorities (e.g. Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore) to capture a picture of ship movements in the Straits in the near future. This paper proposed a novel simulation model for ship movements in the narrow and busy shipping channel. The simulation approach is on the basis of a modified Cellular Automata model and takes interactions between consecutive ships into consideration by expert judgment from experienced personnel. Discrete event models are applied to generate vessels with different categories and velocities from four portals of the Strait. Ten ship following rules and five ship crossing rules are used to simulate the mariners’ response to various navigational scenarios. The model is further verified by comparing the actual travel time through the Strait and the time derived from the model. At last, applications of the model are illustrated.