الگوریتم کلونی مورچه چند منظوره در کنترل ریسک EPC

According to the risks and risk control target in energy performance contracting (EPC), this paper has designed the risk control measure set. On the basis, a risk control model is put forward, including the risk evaluation, risk control cost, risk loss. Then, a multi-objective ant colony algorithm, based on Pareto theory, is used to solve the model. A series of Pareto optimal solutions are got by example. The result shows that the solutions have the better diversity and convergence. At the same time, the model can find the best combination of various risk control measures in EPC, which can provide direct evidence for the company of EPC.

EPC is a commercial operation mode of EMC, which company can provide energy saving technology and services for some customers by signing energy service contracts with th e customer, ensure the realization of contract promised amount of energy and energy efficiency, take back investment and obtain profits from the customers’ benefits gotten after energy saving renovation. EPC is widely used in higher degree of market of developed country. In the last century 90's, EPC is introduced into China. But it is not developed quickly. The reason is that the risk management ability of energy service company in China is not worth badly at present. At present, many scholars make a study on EPC risk from the different viewpoints. K.H.Ng et al. studied the risk value and risk aversion of EPC project in energy service company[1]. Evan Mills et al.made a deep analysis on EPC risk by energy saving insurance transfer[2]. Gerald B. Sheble et al. established risk probability model and estimation principle method of energy service company by mathematical methods[3]. Evan Millsa put forward the analysis framework for the funds and risk of EPC projects, and made accurate analysis on existed risk by energy experts and invest ment experts' experience and knowledge[4]. T.C. Shang et al. discussed the evaluation index system of EPC project risk in China, and made quantitative evaluation on risk by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[5].According to above documents analysis, the study on EPC risk has not effective control measures currently. Thus, in order to provide direct decision basis for contract energy project managers, the risk control model of EPC is established to find optimal control measures in this paper

As EPC risk has already become the bottleneck to restrict EPC development in China, the research on risk control methods of EPC has an important role in EPC of China. This paper designs risk control measures set, and establishes a multi-objective risk control model. For the scale of EPC risks is larger,and it can appear risk measures combination explosion, the multi-objec tive ant colony algorithm based on Pareto is designed to solve this model. This algorithm can achieve global optimization and is ensured its fast and rationality in the case of nomanual intervention. In view of example analysis, a series of Pareto optimal solutions are get. The study shows that the model has better diversity and convergence. At the same time, the model sustains multi-object optimization, and can find the optimal combination of EPC risk control measures, which provides direct basis for EPC project manager