تجزیه و تحلیل ریسک تحویلی در چارچوب مدیریت برنامه با استفاده از منطق فازی و DEA: مطالعه موردی چین

The last decades witnessed an increasing number of large construction programs, which have presented a large number of extra risks in terms of management. This is due to the unique characteristics of programs compared to traditional projects. On the basis of definition of a construction program, a mixed approach was employed in this study to explore the management of delivery risk of a construction program. The main contents include (1) build a delivery risk structure for a construction program as the foundation of risk qualitative and quantitative analysis; (2) analyze risk magnitude and assess the efficiency of delivery methods by using fuzzy logic theory and DEA; (3) conduct a case study of the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games as an example of construction programs to apply and verify the mixed delivery risk assessment approach developed in this study. The result shows that the separate contracting delivery method which was planned to be used for the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games is not the best choice, which needs to be improved based on the principles of PM contracting and partner contracting. The mixed approach used in the case study can be employed by practitioners to select an optimal delivery method for other construction programs.