آنالیزریسک در پروژه ساخت و ساز - روشهای انتخاب

The risk is a measurable part of uncertainty, for which we are able to estimate the occurrence probability and the size of damage. The risk is assumed as a deviation from the desired level. It can be positive or, which most often happens, it can be negative. Therefore, the risks analysis is so important for project selection and coordination of construction work. The risk analysis is regarded as the analysis of adverse events even at the stage of planning and programming of a construction project. This analysis enriches the decision-making process and provides additional arguments, which help to select the optimal variant of a construction project using the Multi-Aspects approach. This article presents three different methods of the risk analysis as well as highlighting their disadvantages, advantages and primary areas of application (selection or pre-estimation). These methods differ in their methodology from each other. The verification was started from the simplest techniques using some qualitative variables. This method is based on the considerable subjectivity of a decision maker although it is relatively simple and easy to use. The analysis was finished on the statistical method, which determines the type of used data therefore it affects the quality of the results. The areas of application and analytical capacity of the listed methods are illustrated with the short examples, simultaneously outlining their characteristics from the analysis. The research problems, which are the canvas of application of the discussed methods are not mutually interrelated. They present different aspects of variants of the investment process.