مدل سازی پویایی پروژه توسعه شهری: تمرکز بر توسعه شهرک سازی خودکفا

A self-sufficient city can be defined as a city where there is a defined perimeter, inside which lies a population that is self-sufficient: i.e., the economy within the city fully employs the population, and the services and cultural infrastructure within the city are sufficient supply for the population. This paper aims to analyze the dynamics of urban development projects, with a particular focus on the self-sufficient city development policy. To this end, key success factors relating to self-sufficient city developments are derived. A causal loop diagram is then constructed to analyze the interaction between elements of the self-sufficient city development and a system dynamics model is developed to perform quantitative analysis of urban development policies. The results indicate that all urban development policies are related to urban growth, but with varying types and degrees of influence. The ‘business inflow’ and ‘initial education welfare investment’ policies do influence quantitative urban population growth. However, the ‘initial houses’ and ‘initial service facility supply’ policies have arguably greater influence, as they assist in achieving stable urban population growth over time. Based on these results, it is concluded that the developed model has a potential to aid decision makers in assessing the impact of various self-sufficient urban development policies.