The purpose of this study was to provide a better understanding of doctoral studies persistence and completion by developing and validating a predictive model of dropout intentions. Based on self-determination theory (SDT), the model posits that perceived competence decreases dropout intentions, and that perceived competence is explained by autonomous and controlled regulations, which are in turn predicted by perceived psychological needs support provided by the student's advisor, faculties as well as other graduate students. A two-pronged approach was used: 1) a retrospective comparison of completers and noncompleters (N = 422), and 2) a prospective examination of enrolled PhD students over two trimesters to assess dropout intentions (N = 1060). Overall, the findings of the two studies are similar and support the proposed model. Specifically, perceived competence appears to be the cornerstone of doctoral studies persistence (completion and dropout intentions) and is predicted mainly by autonomous and controlled regulations and advisor support. Both perceived support by advisor and by faculty have an indirect effect on dropout intentions through motivational processes.
In the United States and Canada, enrollment in doctoral programs rose by 64% and 57%, respectively, from 1998 to 2010 (OECD, 2013). A doctoral education confers many benefits, for both individuals (e.g., greater professional and personal mobility, better working conditions, higher income) and society (e.g., tax incomes, knowledge production and dissemination, innovation, social and economic development; Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada (AUCC, 2009, Auriol, 2010 and Wendler et al, 2012). Nevertheless, doctoral attrition rates remain high in North America, at an estimated 40% to 50% (Berelson, 1960, Council of Graduate Schools (CGS), 2009, Minister of Education, Recreation and Sports (MERS), 2013 and Nettles, Millett, 2006). However, they vary across disciplines, being higher in the arts, humanities, and social sciences and lower in the natural sciences (Bowen, Rudenstine, 1992, Council of Graduate Schools (CGS), 2009, Elgar, 2003 and Nettles, Millett, 2006).
Although some students may have compelling personal reasons for leaving their PhD program, such as attractive job opportunities, financial difficulties, and family obligations, the consequences for these students, as well as for universities and society, can be costly. Students who drop out may have fewer employment opportunities and experience lower self-esteem (Lovitts, 2001 and Statistics Canada and Human Resources Development Canada, 2003). Moreover, the substantial time and energy they invested could have been directed to other areas of their lives. For the university, doctoral attrition reduces resources and at the same time incurs costs for faculty members who have invested considerable time in research projects that will never be completed. For society, doctoral program non-completion results in lower productivity and competitiveness (Wendler et al, 2010 and Wendler et al, 2012).
Despite the high and steady attrition rates and the negative consequences of dropping out, the media and policymakers show little interest in this issue. This disinterest is also reflected in a lack of research. In 1993, Tinto noted that very few empirical studies had addressed this topic, and those that had were usually not guided by a comprehensive model or theory. Twenty years later, the situation has not changed significantly (see Ampaw, Jaeger, 2012, Elgar, 2003, Golde, 2005 and Tamburri, 2013).
Given the relevance of doctoral student persistence, the lack of research on this subject, and the dearth of adequate theoretical models, this study aimed to develop and test a model of doctoral dropout intentions based on self-determination theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 1985). The model posits that motivational resources and perceived psychological needs support provided by advisors, faculty, and other graduate students are strong predictors of doctoral dropout intentions. Below, we introduce SDT. We then present a brief literature review concerning the relationship of doctoral persistence to autonomous regulation, competence, and support by students, faculty, and the advisor. We also present the persistence determinants we used as control variables. We then describe our model in more detail and outline the two studies we conducted to validate it.
