عدم اطمینان و حساسیت تجزیه و تحلیل برای بهینه سازی اقتصادی منبع انرژی نو در لیتوانی

Study presented in this paper consists of two main parts: the modelling of future energy system development scenarios and the analysis of the influence of main initial model parameters to the calculation results (sensitivity and uncertainty analysis). Economic modelling and optimisation was concentrating on evaluation of possibilities to construct a new energy source. The MESSAGE modelling tool was used for modelling and optimisation of the future energy system development. In this study, the introduced approach was applied focussing on small and medium nuclear reactor (SMR), which could be one of the future energy source options in Lithuania. As an example of SMR, the IRIS (International Reactor Innovative and Secure) nuclear reactor was chosen in this study. Finally, the analysis of uncertainty and sensitivity enabled to investigate how uncertain are results of modelling and how this uncertainty is sensitive to the uncertainty of model parameters. In the particular case we have analysed how Lithuanian energy system development scenarios could change, when changing the initial model parameters describing IRIS technology. If IRIS could be built near the cities without Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) where a big heat demand is, it could be safely used not only for electricity generation, but also for heat supply for residential and industrial consumers. This will allow not only to reduce energy prices but also to decrease fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.