ادغام انرژی های تجدیدپذیر بالاتر در سیستم انرژی موجود فنلاند - آیا محدودیت حداکثر وجود دارد؟

Finland is to increase the share of RES (renewable energy sources) up to 38% in final energy consumption by 2020. While benefiting from local biomass resources Finnish energy system is deemed to achieve this goal, increasing the share of other intermittent renewables is under development, namely wind power and solar energy. Yet the maximum flexibility of the existing energy system in integration of renewable energy is not investigated, which is an important step before undertaking new renewable energy obligations. This study aims at filling this gap by hourly analysis and comprehensive modeling of the energy system including electricity, heat, and transportation, by employing EnergyPLAN tool. Focusing on technical and economic implications, we assess the maximum potential of different RESs separately (including bioenergy, hydropower, wind power, solar heating and PV, and heat pumps), as well as an optimal mix of different technologies. Furthermore, we propose a new index for assessing the maximum flexibility of energy systems in absorbing variable renewable energy. The results demonstrate that wind energy can be harvested at maximum levels of 18–19% of annual power demand (approx. 16 TWh/a), without major enhancements in the flexibility of energy infrastructure. With today's energy demand, the maximum feasible renewable energy for Finland is around 44–50% by an optimal mix of different technologies, which promises 35% reduction in carbon emissions from 2012's level. Moreover, Finnish energy system is flexible to augment the share of renewables in gross electricity consumption up to 69–72%, at maximum. Higher shares of RES calls for lower energy consumption (energy efficiency) and more flexibility in balancing energy supply and consumption (e.g. by energy storage).