طراحی تغییر فناوری برای بهبود برنامه ریزی فناوری فضایی و سیستم های مدیریت

Projecting technology performance evolution has been improving over the years. Reliable quantitative forecasting methods have been developed that project the growth, diffusion, and performance of technology in time, including projecting technology substitutions, saturation levels, and performance improvements. These forecasts can be applied at the early stages of space technology planning to better predict available future technology performance, assure the successful selection of technology, and improve technology systems management strategy. Often what is published as a technology forecast is simply scenario planning, usually made by extrapolating current trends into the future, with perhaps some subjective insight added. Typically, the accuracy of such predictions falls rapidly with distance in time. Quantitative technology forecasting (QTF), on the other hand, includes the study of historic data to identify one of or a combination of several recognized universal technology diffusion or substitution patterns. In the same manner that quantitative models of physical phenomena provide excellent predictions of system behavior, so do QTF models provide reliable technological performance trajectories. In practice, a quantitative technology forecast is completed to ascertain with confidence when the projected performance of a technology or system of technologies will occur. Such projections provide reliable time-referenced information when considering cost and performance trade-offs in maintaining, replacing, or migrating a technology, component, or system. This paper introduces various quantitative technology forecasting techniques and illustrates their practical application in space technology and technology systems management.

Quantitative technology forecasting (QTF) can provide insight into the progress of space development, from projecting patterns in exploratory launches to identifying the nexus of technology performance trends and requirements for extended space travel. The quantitative analysis of technology change can improve policy, resource allocation, and investment decisions in all space-related activities, as QTF analysis have advantaged other industries. The application of QTF tools can be a significant strategic element in space technology planning.

Quantitative technology forecasting includes the study of historic data to identify one of, or a combination of, several recognized universal technology diffusion or substitution patterns useful in strategic technology management. This paper has introduced various quantitative technology forecasting techniques and illustrated their practical application for purposes of space program technology and technology systems planning.