Recent focus on the diversity of research methodologies available to accounting information systems (AIS) scholars has led researchers to suggest the Delphi method has reached the limits of its usefulness. Using a review of the accounting and information systems literature, we suggest such a finding is premature for the AIS discipline. The Delphi method is especially useful in reducing ambiguity through the use of expert panels of both practitioners and experts and informing relevant and timely issues facing organizations. In essence, the Delphi method has potential to provide both rigor and relevance to AIS researchers. Our purpose is to review the prior literature on the use of the Delphi method and discuss potential areas of research within the AIS discipline where the method might add value. Based on this review, we develop a series of guidelines on how to properly develop, administer, and assess panel responses and then use an illustrative study example that explores IT risks in operations. We conclude with a discussion of the value of the Delphi method and provide insight into its limitations.
As a field of inquiry, accounting information systems (AIS) draws heavily from a wide variety of referent disciplines, including management information systems (MIS), organizational behavior, psychology, computer science and economics. Given this rich milieu, the AIS literature has diversity in phenomena, theoretical perspectives and methodological approaches. In a recent editorial on methodologies in AIS research, Nicolaou (2011) advocated a broad view of the AIS discipline and encouraged a conversation on alternative methods and theoretical approaches that have potential for informing AIS research. We wish to contribute to this conversation by providing an overview and discussion of the Delphi method, and how it might be used for exploratory research, theory building and forecasting.
The Delphi method is “intended for systematically soliciting, organizing and structuring judgments and opinions on a particularly complex subject matter from a panel of anonymous experts until a consensus is reached on the topic or until it becomes evident that further convergence is not possible” (Anderson et al., 1994, p478). The Delphi method is especially well-suited for exploratory, theory-building research efforts which involve complex, multi-disciplinary issues, especially if analyses of new or future trends are the focus of the research ( Meredith et al., 1989, Neely, 1993, Akkermans et al., 1999, Akkermans et al., 2003 and Daniel and White, 2005). Although the Delphi method has not seen widespread adoption in the AIS literature, this method does have distinct benefits when effectively paired with the appropriate research question and focal topic. For example, the Delphi method has been demonstrated to provide more accurate decisions than other group decision techniques, such as focus groups and nominal group technique ( Rowe and Wright, 1999 and Daniel and White, 2005). Our intention is not to suggest that one method is better than the other, but rather to provide an objective view of the method's strengths and weaknesses so that the researcher can make an informed decision on whether or not the Delphi method is the appropriate approach for her current inquiry.
This manuscript will unfold as follows. First, we will provide an overview of the Delphi method, to include its history and purpose. We will examine the use of the Delphi method in accounting and information systems research. Second, we will provide guidance on designing and executing Delphi studies, to include design considerations, expert panel selection, and quantitative and qualitative analyses. Third, we will present an example of a seeded, ranking-type Delphi study to illustrate the use of the method. This example explores the perceptions of IT risk among three key stakeholder groups: IT auditors, business managers, and IT managers. Fourth, we will discuss the strengths of the Delphi method and its value in theory building and exploratory analysis. Finally, we will conclude with the limitations of the Delphi method.
The purpose of this manuscript was to highlight the advantages and disadvantages of the Delphi method and discuss its potential value to AIS scholars. In reviewing its use in AIS and MIS literatures, we outlined the history of the Delphi method as well as research opportunities for AIS research. We then provided an illustrative example of the Delphi method and subsequently offered guidelines on how to design and administer a Delphi study. As with all research methods, the Delphi method has strengths and weaknesses, and is more appropriate in some settings than others. The challenge is to effectively align phenomenon, research question and method so that the researcher and study can make a contribution to the broader literature. It is our hope that more AIS researchers will view the Delphi method favorably and add it to their toolkit.
