دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 112095
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

پایه اجتماعی برنامه ریزی سناریو

عنوان انگلیسی
Social foundation of scenario planning
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
112095 2017 10 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 124, November 2017, Pages 6-15

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
توسعه سناریو، روش سناریو، استفاده از سناریو، مطالعات علم و فناوری، جامعه شناسی علم،
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
Scenario development; Scenario method; Scenario use; Science and technology studies; Sociology of science;
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  پایه اجتماعی برنامه ریزی سناریو

چکیده انگلیسی

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowledge the concerns voiced in futures studies that while models based on practical experience are common in the literature, forming a theoretical basis for why those practices work is often considered elusive. This includes models that imply linearity and those that accommodate iterativity. With theory from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight into why scenario planning is a kind of laboratory for futures studies wherein the future is experimented upon.