مدل سازی رفتار عبور از رانندگان در تقاطع های غیرقانونی با توجه به درک ریسک

Studying driver awareness of information, particularly risk perception, is vital to understanding driving behavior and improving traffic safety. In the dynamic interaction of a driver-vehicle-environment system, risk perception of drivers changes dynamically. In this study, we focused on drivers’ risk perception at unsignalized intersections in China and analyzed their crossing behavior with consideration of risk perception. Based on cognitive psychology theory and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, quantitative models of drivers’ risk perception were established for the crossing processes between two straight-moving vehicles from the orthogonal direction. Drivers’ acceptable risk perception levels were identified using a self-developed data analysis method. On the basis of game theory, the relationship among the quantitative value of drivers’ risk perception, acceptable risk perception level, and vehicle motion state was analyzed, then the crossing behavior models of drivers were established. Finally, the behavior models were validated using data collected from real-world vehicle movements and driver decisions. The results showed that the developed behavior models had both high accuracy and good applicability. This study would provide theoretical and algorithmic references for the microscopic simulation and active safety control system of vehicles.