بر اساس سلول های شبیه سازی تخلیه با توجه به رفتار انسانی در یک کشتی مسافربری

Advanced evacuation analysis of passenger ships is a stochastic method in which the total evacuation time is calculated via computer-based simulations, by considering each passenger's characteristics (e.g., age, gender, etc.) and the detailed layout of the ship. This study presents simulations of advanced evacuation analysis using a cell-based simulation model for human behavior in a passenger ship. The cell-based simulation model divides the space in a uniform grid called cell. Each passenger is located in a cell and moves to another cell according to a set of local rules that are assumed to be associated with the individual, crowd, and counterflow-avoiding behaviors of the passengers. Individual behavior is described with the basic walking direction that a passenger will take during the evacuation. The change in the direction and speed of a passenger based on his/her interaction with the other passengers is expressed via the crowd behavior, which has three basic rules: separation, alignment, and cohesion. The passenger's behavior to avoid other passengers moving in the opposite direction is referred to as “counterflow-avoiding behavior” because such counterflow is included in the evacuation scenario. These behavior patterns are implemented as the local rules and are assigned to each cell. To verify the usefulness of the proposed simulation model, 11 tests specified in International Maritime Organization Maritime Safety Committee/Circulation 1238 (IMO/MSC Circ. 1238) were conducted, and it was confirmed that all the requirements of such tests had been met.

In accordance with Circulation 1238 (Circ. 1238) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC), entitled Guidelines for Evacuation Analysis for New and Existing Passenger Ships, a mandatory regulation issued by IMO, evacuation analysis should be performed for all passenger ships ( IMO, 2007). The purpose of this regulation is to determine if the total evacuation time for a vessel is less than the allowable time according to the regulation. The maximum allowable time is 60 min for RORO (roll-on/roll-off) passenger ships and 80 min for regular passenger ships. The guidelines offer the possibility of using two distinct methods for evacuation analysis: simplified evacuation analysis and advanced evacuation analysis. Simplified evacuation analysis is a deterministic method in which the total evacuation time is calculated using a simple hydraulic scheme, by considering that all passengers have identical characteristics. The total evacuation time can be calculated using a simple formula provided by the IMO, and the results should be submitted to the ship owner and the classification society. On the other hand, advanced evacuation analysis is a stochastic method in which the total evacuation time is estimated using a microscopic approach, by considering each characteristic of each passenger. In this analysis method, the total evacuation time is estimated via computer-based simulations that represent each passenger and the detailed layout of the vessel. Advanced evacuation analysis is currently not mandatory but is expected to be required in the future. Thus, a study on an advanced evacuation analysis was carried out in this paper. The rest of this paper is as follows. Section 2 presents related studies on evacuation analysis and cell-based simulation techniques. Section 3 presents cell-based rules for human behavior in a passenger ship. Section 4 shows how to model passenger behavior based on the Cell–DEVS formalism, which is presented as a combination of discrete event system specifications (DEVS) and cellular automata. In Section 5, the results of 11 tests in IMO/MSC Circ.1238 and advanced evacuation analysis for a RORO passenger ship are explained to verify the passenger behavior model, and the aforementioned analysis method is compared with the commercial evacuation analysis program Evi. Finally, Section 6 presents the conclusions and future directions.

In this study, an advanced evacuation analysis that considers human behavior in a passenger ship was performed. Passenger behavior consists of individual, crowd, and counterflow-avoiding behaviors. Passenger behavior, which was proposed by Cho, was modeled using Cell-DEV and was verified with the 11 tests specified in IMO MSC/Circ. 1238. Advanced evacuation analysis was performed for a RORO passenger ship that could accommodate 1892 passengers. It was confirmed that the total evacuation time met the requirements. The simulation result was compared with that obtained with the commercial program for advanced evacuation analysis Evi, and it was confirmed that they differed by only 5%.