دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 100700
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

آیا شوک های جهانی منجر به شاخص های بحران ارز در ویتنام می شوند؟

عنوان انگلیسی
Are global shocks leading indicators of currency crisis in Viet Nam?
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
100700 2017 11 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 42, December 2017, Pages 605-615

پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  آیا شوک های جهانی منجر به شاخص های بحران ارز در ویتنام می شوند؟

چکیده انگلیسی

This paper aims to identify leading indicators of a currency crisis in Viet Nam based on an early warning system for the period 1996–February 2016. This paper found that global financial shocks (e.g., regional and global financial crisis, unexpected changes in monetary policy of largest economies such as the United States and the People’s Republic of China), and domestic credit growth rate are leading indicators of a currency crisis in Viet Nam in all three models. Deficits in trade balance, international reserves, and overvaluation of the dong are also good indicators. In addition, a model in which a currency crisis or turbulence in the foreign exchange market is defined based on the exchange market pressure and parallel market premium, with window length of 2 months, outperformed for predicting a currency crisis in Viet Nam. Empirical results suggested that probability of predicting a true currency crisis was 77.5%.