عدم اطمینان را در برنامه ریزی مدیریت جنگل شامل: برداشت چوب، آتش سوزی و تغییرات آب و هوایی در جنگل های ساحلی

Our analysis demonstrates the importance of incorporating stochastic variability into projections of future ecosystem condition. The STSM projections that acknowledged variability in wildfire and timber harvest differed from the deterministic forest planning model projections that were based solely on mean values. Our analysis also suggests that there is an increased risk of shortfalls in timber harvest, for both boreal landscapes, associated with future projections for changes in wildfire due to climate change, and that management strategies aimed at reducing the future level of timber harvest offer an opportunity to mitigate these risks. We believe our approach provides a new risk-based framework for incorporating uncertainty into forest management, including the effects of climate change.