مقیاس توسعه شبیه سازی برای وسایل نقلیه الکتریکی

Scale development of electric vehicles (EVs) is the basis for planning the charging infrastructures in the smart grid. For the area with no direct EV historical data, a system dynamics (SD) method is implemented to simulate and forecast the scale of EVs, according to main factors that impact EV scale development greatly. The proposed SD model can integrate various factors and quantify their relationship by comprehensive reasoning. Causal loop diagrams are designed to describe the relationship between factors and variables, and their quantifications are formulated by different business models or formulations. Then the scale development of EVs could be simulated with the given growth pattern data of other factors. The SD methodology is verified and demonstrated by test cases, and sensitivity analysis is also implemented.