پرتفولیو های پروژه در محیط های پویا: سازماندهی برای عدم قطعیت

This research investigated the following research question: How is uncertainty affecting project portfolios managed in dynamic environments? While different approaches have been developed in the context of the management of single projects these ideas have not been carried over to the management of project portfolios. The dynamic capabilities framework is used as the framework to study the management of project portfolios in dynamic environments. The research is based on four portfolios in two firms using retrospective analysis. Sufficient material was collected and analyzed to contribute in the following areas: (1) To provide a better understanding of the management of project portfolios facing uncertainty, (2) to analyze the relationships between the sources of uncertainty in dynamic environments and the organizing mechanisms put in place by organizations to minimize their impact and to capitalize on opportunities, and (3) to identify possible improvements to project portfolio models and standards.

The project portfolio management (PPM) literature has been focusing primarily on project selection, prioritization and balancing with the primary aim of doing the right projects. Once the list of projects is decided, the assumption is that projects will be managed using the now commonly accepted good practices documented in the project management literature. An underlying assumption is that there will not be significant changes to the portfolio until the next periodic review, be that quarterly, bi-annually or annually, and that individual projects will deal with the risks and uncertainties in the course of their execution. This research studied how uncertainties are managed at the portfolio level reusing concepts borrowed from the dynamic capability literature. Following the presentation of the theoretical framework, the research methodology is described. The final section of the article presents and discusses the results. This research attempts to answer the following research question: How is uncertainty affecting project portfolios managed in dynamic environments? with four main objectives: • To identify the organizing mechanisms used to manage uncertainty affecting project portfolios in dynamic environments, • To evaluate the use of the dynamic capability framework for the study of project portfolios, • To study project portfolio management at the operational level using concepts borrowed from sensemaking (traditionally used to study the interpretative mechanism at the individual level) and from dynamic capabilities (traditionally used to study strategic processes at the corporate level), • To identify useful practices in the field of project portfolio management.

This research undertook to investigate the area of PPM in dynamic environments using dynamic capabilities as a framework. The objective was to attempt to answer the following research question: How is uncertainty affecting project portfolios managed in dynamic environments? The ambition was never to answer this question entirely and thoroughly but to explore it through the qualitative study of four portfolios in two firms. It proposed to make some contributions to the understanding of the mechanisms put in place by organizations having to manage project portfolios while facing constantly changing environments. This provided sufficient material to contribute in at least four areas: • To provide a better understanding of the management of project portfolios, more specifically of the operational activities involved once portfolio are authorized and launched, • To analyze the relationships between the sources of uncertainty in dynamic environments and the mechanisms put in place by organizations to minimize their impact and to capitalize on opportunities, • To develop ways to operationalize the concepts in the dynamic capabilities framework, and • To suggest improvements to the dynamic capabilities framework. One of the contributions of this research was to demonstrate that the dynamic capability framework can also be used to analyze operational levels of the organization, in this case to study PPM, as opposed to the strategic level, which is a more traditional field using this framework. The experience gained using dynamic capabilities as a conceptual framework, provides some suggestions for a better understanding of dynamic capabilities for researchers and practitioners. The initial sequence sensing–seizing–transforming/reconfiguring, which is the basic model of dynamic capabilities, was used to collect data and to structure the interviews but was enhanced during data analysis in order to capture the reality that was being observed. These theoretical contributions have been published separately. In recent years, the topic of project selection seems to have dominated the literature on PPM. This includes tools and techniques to rank projects or optimize resource allocation under certain constraints. Although choosing the right projects is of the utmost importance, this research has shown that the ongoing monitoring and controlling of PPM process is also rich as an object of study. One of the objectives of this research was to provide a better understanding of the operational activities involved once portfolio are authorized and launched. Managers involved in the daily planning and control of project portfolios spend great efforts in maintaining optimal resource allocation and at ensuring that the project efforts are not wasted due to uncertainties. In addition, planning the project scope is a continuous activity involving tremendous efforts and resources. Managing project portfolios involves creating structures, introducing new processes, introducing new business models, which goes beyond project selection. These activities are not static. The environment is often constantly changing and the projects being managed in constant flux and in need of constant oversight, support, and alignment. As is often the case in this type of research, many additional questions have been raised during the course of this study. Exploratory work, like this one, paves the way for additional research around the following topics: Third-order dynamic capabilities not covered in study: the study was limited to the first two orders of dynamic capabilities. A broader study might identify higher-order mechanisms which would offer additional insights. Larger sample and measuring instruments (performance, turbulence): this qualitative study provides data which would benefit from being strengthen through quantitative studies on a larger sample. This could help understand the different types of environments in which project portfolio must be managed, what their sources of uncertainties are and what mechanisms are put in these different environments; questions that this study could not answer. A more quantitative research on portfolios would also require the development of measuring instruments for performance and turbulence. As can be observed, much remains to be investigated to better understand how to manage in dynamic environments. Considering that “uncertainty appears as the fundamental problem for complex organizations, and coping with uncertainty, as the essence of the administrative process” (Thompson, 1967, p.159), it is hoped that this paper contributes to a better understanding of the topic of organizing for uncertainty.