برنامه ریزی مدیریت ریسک مهندسی در انعقاد قرارداد عملکرد انرژی در چین

The main purpose of this article is to define engineering risk existing in the process of the development of Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) and to provide a system and quantitative evaluation method to reduce engineering risk of EPC. We systematically studied the engineering risk existing in EPC: the political and legal risk, market risk, technology risk, management risk, financial risk, project quality risk and client risk. By using the mature ideas, tools, and technology of risk management - experts’ marking methods and synthetic evaluation method based on fuzzy theory, the target system of evaluation on EPC is discussed, qualitative and quantitative risk evaluation is conducted, and the guiding ideas and the model are provided. At last, by putting forward the corresponding measures for the EMC to control risk in the operation, this article provides reference point for the risk management planning of EPC.

In the 1970s, the global Energy Crisis has hit the economy of most developed countries, but spawned a new industry - Energy Performance Contracting (EPC). After more than 30 years of development and improvement, EPC has been gradually popularized, applied and rapidly matured in North America, Europe as well as some developing countries, becoming a new market-based energy-saving mechanism. In 1996, Chinese government received the financial assistance from Global Environment Fund to launch the "Chinese energy-saving promotion project" and to organize three Energy Management Company (EMC) in Beijing, Liaoning and Shandong. After years of development, EPC has become more widespread in China. In the 2010 Copenhagen Conference, Chinese government pledged itself to reduce carbon emissions up to 40 - 45% by 2020. Since EPC is an immensely low-carbon and market-based energy-saving mechanism, Chinese central and local government have issued incentive policies to develop EPC.