استفاده از اولویت های فرایند تحلیل شبکه ای (ANP) با برنامه ریزی آرمانی جهت تخصیص منابع در حمل و نقل

Transportation Infrastructure (TI) project selection means identifying some alternative projects in order to maximize the net benefit to the organization and allocating resources only among those alternatives, within the given constraints on resources. To select the best set of proposed TI projects in an organization is difficult because there are lots of multiple factors such as project risk, corporate goals, limited availability of firm’s TI resources, etc., in the candidate TI projects. The TI project selection problems are Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems. Prior project selection techniques are useful. However, they have restricted application because they generally depend on the assumption of independence among the candidate projects and criteria. In this paper, we suggest an improved TI project selection methodology which reflects interdependencies among evaluation criteria and candidate projects using analytic network process (ANP) within a zero–one goal programming (ZOGP) model. In order to provide a systematic approach to set priorities among multi-criteria and trade-off among objectives, ANP is suggested to be applied prior to GP formulation. Although goal programming incorporates multiple objectives and arrives at an optimal solution, its major drawback is that the decision maker(s) must specify goals and priorities a priori. In order to overcome this problem, group discussion is needed. In this research, we suggested an integrated approach for interdependent TI project selection problems using Fuzzy Delphi, Analytic Network Process concept and Zero-One Goal Programming. Finally, in project selection, it is very important to consider the interdependent relationship among projects or criteria because of the characteristics of interdependence that exist in real problems. In addition, developing a methodology for considering interdependent factors is a very difficult problem. We introduce a method of solution through a real-world TI empirical example on an ongoing decision-making project in Taichung City, Taiwan using ANP/ZOGP. Using this method we solve problems having multiple criteria, interdependence and resource feasibility.

Transportation Infrastructure (TI) project evaluation and selection is concerned with the allocation of scarce organizational resources. These TI project evaluation and selection problems are multi-criteria decision-making problems. Numerous methodologies for project or research and development projects selection have been developed and reported on, in the last two decades [1]. TI project selection means identifying some alternative projects in order to maximize the net benefit to the organization and allocating resources only among those alternatives, within the given constraints on resources. To select the best set of proposed TI projects in an organization is difficult because there are lots of multiple factors such as project risk, corporate goals, limited availability of firm’s TI resources, etc., in the candidate TI projects. The TI project selection problems are Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems. When we evaluate project problems, we need to collect a group opinion because to know the interdependence relationship among criteria and criteria in the considered project problems is very important. In order to collect group opinions for interdependent project problems, we use expert interview. Keeney and Raiffa [2] propose a method to determine the utility function of the decision-maker in mathematical form. This utility function then represents a decision maker’s level of satisfaction with different alternatives. Mathematical programming is basically a static optimization problem, consisting of different models such as linear programming, goal programming, dynamic programming, and game theory [3]. Goal Programming (GP) [4] is designed to deal with problems involving multiple conflicting objectives. However, to overcome the drawback of GP, decision makers must specify the goals and their priorities a priori. The result of problem formulation shows a great difference as the decision maker’s judgements. Therefore, a systematic procedure is needed to determine the following factors in constructing the GP model through a group discussion: (1) objectives, (2) desired level of attainment for each objective, (3) a degree of interdependence relationship, and (4) penalty weights for over-achievement or under-achievement of each goal. Another shortcoming of GP is the lack of a systematic approach to set priorities and trade-off among objectives and criteria [3]. This drawback is even more evident when both tangible and intangible factors need to be considered and when interdependent factors are involved and a number of people need to participate in the judgement process. In order to overcome this problem, analytic network process (ANP), developed by Saaty [5], is applied to set priorities for objectives and determines trade-off among them. The fuzzy Delphi method [6] and [7] is a systematic procedure for evoking expert group opinion. To determine a degree of interdependence relationship also, the fuzzy Delphi method is used. The information obtained from the fuzzy Delphi method and ANP is then used to formulate a goal programming problem. The objective of this paper is to describe an integrated approach of interdependent TI project selection using fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and GP. Thus, in this paper, we suggest an improved TI project selection methodology which reflects interdependencies among evaluation criteria and candidate projects using analytic network process (ANP) within a zero–one goal programming (ZOGP) model. In order to provide a systematic approach to set priorities among multi-criteria and trade-off among objectives, ANP is suggested to be applied prior to GP formulation. Prior TI project selection techniques proposed are useful but have restricted application because they consider only independent TI projects or evaluation criteria. To consider project interdependent properties provides valuable cost savings and greater benefits to organizations. Unfortunately, there are many clearly interdependent cases in real-world subset selection problems. In other words, when we carried out some TI projects, there exists a great amount of sharing a variety of different resources among various transportation applications. However, TI project problems have an interdependence property. There exists a great amount of sharing of hardware and software resources as the result of executing various TI projects. For example, portions of transportation engineering shop drawings drawn for one application submitted to such as engineering consultants, construction departments, and owners are being reused as some requirements for several other application projects, providing substantial savings in developmental cost [8]. The objective of this paper is to suggest a solving methodology for TI project selection problems that have interdependence property among project or evaluation criteria. In order to reflect the interdependencies property in TI project selection in which exist multiple criteria, we used an analytic network process (ANP) [5] model and zero–one goal programming (ZOGP) [9] by group expert interview. Specifically, we demonstrated how a combined ANP and ZOGP model can be used as an aid in TI project selection problems.

The application of the ANP-ZOGP model to the empirical example demonstrates a procedure for finding weights that considers interdependence among criteria or alternatives. The proposed model provides a methodology for researchers to use in a project selection problem having an interdependent relationship. Scoring and ranking techniques are intuitively simple but they do not ensure resource feasibility and are insufficient for dealing with project interdependence. Prior research mainly focused on problems assuming independence. Although there are many prior researches in independent problem using AHP or other DA methodology, there are no studies or research on interdependent problem. It is seen that AHP is most appropriate in situations where project costs and benefits are not known, resource constraints do not exist, project interdependencies do not exist and an optimal solution is not needed. Although there are lots of difficulties for solving problems considering interdependent property, most of real-world problems, especially, TI project evaluation problems, have interdependent property. However, it is very difficult to judge whether they are having interdependent property or not. Therefore, group decision making is more helpful to determine such an interdependent property than to decide by only one or two decision maker(s). Group discussion is more needed to determine the degree of impact among the considered criteria or alternatives because the degree of impact is varied according to the decision maker. Group discussion is very effective to determine important problems or is likely to be biased if the problem is addressed by a single decision maker. Group expert interview can minimize a decision maker’s partiality. The man who considers this methodology applicable to real problems may not be bothered by the cost through group expert interview. In project selection, it is very important to consider the interdependent relationship among projects or criteria because of the characteristics of interdependence that exist in real problems. In addition, the cost of difficulty in data gathering for modeling is not so critical as the risk in selecting the wrong project without considering the interdependencies. In addition to the illustrative example shown in our research, a recent survey indicated that the use of mathematical models are becoming more prevalent with the availability of Decision Support Systems or commercial software packages such as Expert Choice, Lindo, MathPro, and Microsoft Excel which now integrate nonlinear programming techniques with spreadsheets and also provide some model formulation tools. This paper shows an example solving project interdependence based on ANP and ZOGP by interviewing groups of experts. Using this method we conclude that we can solve problems having multiple criteria, interdependence and resource feasibility. The empirical example uses the ANP/ZOGP methodology for analysis. When all of the non-dominated solutions are found by our proposed algorithm, a decision maker can evaluate the objective values of these solutions and identify a satisfactory alternative. In this paper, we have shown an alternative method to quantify the combined effects of factors on organizational performance measures using the supermatrix approach. The selection of an appropriate set of TI projects is very helpful to all land use and engineering organizations. In addition, we developed the work on TI project selection by considering the impact relationship among criteria. The ANP is presented in this paper as a valuable method to support the selection of TI projects that is efficient for a public sector to perform the Transportation Infrastructure improvements study. At last, the determination of a good selection of TI projects may not only include land use, planning and design, infrastructure definition, management and maintenance, travel demand, financial analysis, and proposal and promotion factors, but the sensitivity analysis applicable to the project problem issues may also need to be taken into consideration. This can also be our future focus of research.