ارزیابی ریسک بر اساس شبکه های فازی(F-ANP) در پروژه ساخت پردیس جدید

From the characteristics of New Campus Engineering Project, the paper uses the method of F-ANP to evaluate risks of New Campus Engineering Project by combining the ANP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. New Campus Engineering Project belonging to higher risk project is obtained, so as to provide evidence for control the risk of New Campus Engineering Project.

Since 1999, in order to realize to change advanced education from “elite education” to “mass education”, variousuniversities carried out expanding enrollment and the number of the enrolled students again and again. According tothe Ministry of Education website data: 1997 National university entrance 1 million, the number of the enrolledstudents for the 3.17 million; 2009, the higher education enrollment 6.4 million, the number of the enrolled students for the 28.27 million; 2010 plan enrollment 6.57 million, the number of the enrolled students is still rising. With thenumber of the enrolled university students increased and universities faced to expand the campus area, teachingfacilities, accommodation and logistics facilities, increase faculty and other urgent needs. In recent years, universityconstruction in full swing for the development of advanced education provides a good opportunity.However, new campus engineering project with building long-aging, time-critical, large amount of investment characteristics, while new campus construction project management there are also many problems, making a hugerisk existing in the new campus construction project. To evaluate risks provide for the risk control of New CampusConstruction Project. As a special construction projects, university new campus construction project risk factors,respectively, by the owners (universities) and the Contractor, and this paper analysis the risks of new campusconstruction project assumed by universities.

There is few research of the new campus construction project at present, and most of present research tends tostay in qualitative analysis of financing risk or construction risk, and quantitative analysis is rarely used for riskassessment of the new campus construction project. Based on the comprehensive study of a large number ofliteratures, the paper used F-ANP to evaluate risk of the new campus construction project. And the conclusion is the risk of new campus construction project was higher risk. It will lead huge losses to the government and the societyonce the risk event occurs. It needs that the universities must strengthen the risk management in the new campusconstruction process to ensure the smooth implementation of the new campus construction project