تحقیق و استفاده از روش ارزیابی ایمنی حادثه انفجار گاز در معدن ذغال سنگ بر اساس GRA-ANP-FCE

According to the complexity and nonlinear interaction between influencing factors of gas explosion in coal mine, this paper analyzed the main influencing factors of coal mine gas explosion accident with Grey Relational Analysis, and built the risk assessment index system of coal mine gas explosion based on four factors of “man-machine-environment- management”. This paper built the multi-criterion and multi-level network calculation model for the index system and got the weight sets by using Analytic Network Process. Multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation determined the risk of gas explosion level. A coal mine in the South, for example, its gas explosion risk assessment, results showed that the method could find the main key risk factors and deal effectively the complex influence relationship among them, and provide an important reference to coal mine gas accident risk control and management.

Gas explosion is the main hazard in the safety production activity of our country coal mine. It always threatened to ourcountry mine industry of healthy development because of its characteristics such as heavy damage, more casualty, seriouseconomic losses and so on. According to the latest statistics of State Administration of Work Safety, gas accidents accounted for more than 80% of our country gas accidents, and fatalities accounted for 90% of most serious accidents. Tostrengthen hazard risk assessment of mine gas explosion which is an important method to prevent and control accidenthappen, and it has great significance to provide great guarantee for rising safety production of coal mine, and to strengthen the prevention for gas explosion and for reducing the losses by accidents. There exists many method for analysis and assessment on gas explosion hazard of coal mine, such as Analytic HierarchyProcess(AHP), Fuzzy Analysis Method, Grey Assessment Method, Artificial Neural Network Assessment Method and soon [4-9]. SHI [4] established the non-linear multilevel gray evaluation model of risk assessment of gas explosion accidentevolution in coal mine based on AHP and gray clustering method. CAO [5] established the risk assessment model of gasexplosion in coal mine based on the hazard theory and fuzzy mathematics. Among them, AHP gets the most extensiveapplication in the system decision-making analysis, but the premise of AHP application is that each level or its elements aremutually independent. Because of this, AHP suffers limitation in being used for assessment of complex nonlinear system.Coal mine production is a multi-factor, multivariable and multi-level complex nonlinear system [1-3]. There are manyinfluencing factors to induce mine coal gas explosion in the course of coal mine underground production, and they are interaction and inter-influence. Those uncertain factors can’t be quantized by using traditional mathematical model orscience computation. Analytic Network Process (ANP) [10] solved the dependent and feedback between factors and it hasbeen used in selecting scheme and assessing indexes of complex system [11-12].This paper analyzed the main influencing factors of coal mine gas explosion accident, and built the risk assessment index system of coal mine gas explosion on the basis of four aspects: “man-machine- environment- management”, and built ANPFuzzyrisk assessment model for coal mine gas explosion by using grey relational analysis (GRA). We built the networkmodel for this assessment indexes to compute the weights distribution by using ANP. At last, we assess the risk of gas explosion in coal mine by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE). The result of assessment was in agreement withactual situation and showed that the method would provide an important reference for controlling this risk.

(1) After the analysis on the influence factors of gas explosion in coal mine with GRA, we not only get the greyrelational grades and its order but also it will provide strong support to build risk assessment indexes of gas explosion incoal mine. Meanwhile, the results showed that the personal and management factor are the main controlling one to gasexplosion accident, the machine and environment secondly. (2) The network calculation model built by ANP, not only embody the dependency relationship among each factorsbut also represent it qualitatively and quantitatively. The calculation results ANP showed that both personal andmanagement factor make the most important role of gas explosion in coal mine, and the weights of them are more than 80%of all of weights. Therefore, improving the management standard and training the staff qualities are the important way toraise the safe management standard in coal mine. (3) With the example verification, the result of it showed that the method combined with GRA, ANP and FCE isfeasible to assess the gas explosion risk in coal mine and provide a new method and way to assess scientifically.