کاربرد و پژوهش تجزیه و تحلیل های ترکیبیاتی جدید و روش پیش بینی در منطقه دارایی واقعی بر اساس تئوری سیستم های خاکستری و رگرسیون خطی چند متغیره

By analyzing the main factors influencing the real estate market demand and mechanism, the paper has established a real estate demand-analyzing model founded on the base of the gray theory to demonstrate the factors influencing the real estate market of China and finally finds which factor is the most important or less important. The trend of real estate demand in the three years is forecasted by combining least square method and regression method.

Real estate is a medium and long-term investment industry which has a long return period. To strengthen control, the state council's publication of the property market regulation do work on the issue of notice” Relating to do a real estate market control work on the issue of notice” (the instruments of eight ")," clear the control objectives, wider and more severely limit for policy ", a series of policies in january 26,2011.[1] The foreign scholars of the study has two aspects of viewpoints: one is using the microscopic data, due to the facilities and data collection, the other is detailed in-depth research, considered the different colors[2], age, time, the relative housing, family sizes[3],. These rich studies and research methods of our demand for real estate have provided a lot of useful experiences. In china, Bo Gao, Bin Wang[4] selected the price factors, people factors and the residents' income factors to the study of regional differences of demand elasticity of real estate. Huili Liu[5] chose the housing sales price, one-year bank loans rate, the real per capita disposable income of residents in Jiangsu province factors influencing analysis; Bin Zhang[6] selected the population and property sales price, the per capita disposable income, inflation, loans, the domestic economy standards to the estateneeds research. This paper takes the property market as a grey system, uses gray theory to quantizing analysis of market factors influencing and uses multiple linear regression way to the next few years estate forecast of our country so that to provide more effective analysis and forecasting methods for our real estate industry and healthy and orderly development of positive significance for the formulation of policies.

Based on our analysis and forecasting, we can see the economic development and the per capita disposable income of our housing needs impact the most, the house price stands in the second, and with the stability of next few years in the country's policy, the government will go on encourage and support the development of real estate. So on policy makers’ perspective, the government's housing reform, the property market regulating policies, income distribution policy, real estate and financial systems and institutions to regulate consumption policy of real potential demand for the real purchasing power will play a key role. Any property market activities must be based on these policies, otherwise, the market will not have a healthy development in the future.