چارچوب پشتیبانی تصمیم برای برآورد مدت زمان پروژه تحت تاثیر آب و هوا

This paper proposes a decision support (DS) framework that incorporates weather-related factors for the purpose of estimating the duration of projects. Inclement weather can have a serious effect on construction projects, particularly with regard to duration and costs. The weather has an impact on human resource productivity, supplier effectiveness and material damage which can, in turn, affect the duration of a construction project. The proposed five-module framework integrates weather variables, project performance variables and duration of project activities. This framework uses expert knowledge about the importance of weather variables, pairwise comparisons of weather variables with respect to different performance criteria, and similarly, pairwise comparisons of performance variables with respect to project activities. A model based on this framework, using multivariate statistical techniques and an analytical network process (ANP), is developed to estimate the duration of project activities, taking into account the impact of weather. The proposed model is illustrated with data from a construction project from Iran. Validation of the model is provided by comparing the actual duration of an activity with the estimated duration, using the proposed framework.