شبیه سازی دینامیکی رفتار گروهی در حوادث آتش سوزی بر اساس دینامیک سیستم

In order to study the group behavior under severe fire accidents in chemical industrial park, a model of the group behavior was built based on the epidemic model and the system dynamics (SD) theory and method. The influencing factors were selected through analysis of previous research. And taking the group behavior as the main research object, the causality relationships and model between the influencing factors were analyzed. On this basis, system dynamics software vensim was applied to finish dynamic simulation, then dealt with the influence of the group behavior in the change of government credibility, public sentiment and influence of events. The simulation results show that improving the government credibility would increase the public’s satisfaction and trust to the government. At the same time, it is an important measure to deal with the group behavior by easing public sentiment and reducing influence of events. It provides a basis method for group behavior management related to fire accidents in chemical industrial park.