دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 110525
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

مدل های رگرسیون چندجمله ای تکاملی و خطی برای پیش بینی پویایی ساحلی: مقایسه و ارزیابی قابلیت اطمینان

عنوان انگلیسی
Linear and evolutionary polynomial regression models to forecast coastal dynamics: Comparison and reliability assessment
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
110525 2018 13 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Geomorphology, Volume 300, 1 January 2018, Pages 128-140

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
رگرسیون چندجملهای تکاملی، رگرسیون چند لاین، مورفودینامیک ساحلی، فرسایش ساحلی،
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
Evolutionary polynomial regression; Multilinear regression; Coastal morphodynamics; Coastal erosion;
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  مدل های رگرسیون چندجمله ای تکاملی و خطی برای پیش بینی پویایی ساحلی: مقایسه و ارزیابی قابلیت اطمینان

چکیده انگلیسی

In this paper, the Evolutionary Polynomial Regression data modelling strategy has been applied to study small scale, short-term coastal morphodynamics, given its capability for treating a wide database of known information, non-linearly. Simple linear and multilinear regression models were also applied to achieve a balance between the computational load and reliability of estimations of the three models. In fact, even though it is easy to imagine that the more complex the model, the more the prediction improves, sometimes a “slight” worsening of estimations can be accepted in exchange for the time saved in data organization and computational load. The models' outcomes were validated through a detailed statistical, error analysis, which revealed a slightly better estimation of the polynomial model with respect to the multilinear model, as expected. On the other hand, even though the data organization was identical for the two models, the multilinear one required a simpler simulation setting and a faster run time. Finally, the most reliable evolutionary polynomial regression model was used in order to make some conjecture about the uncertainty increase with the extension of extrapolation time of the estimation. The overlapping rate between the confidence band of the mean of the known coast position and the prediction band of the estimated position can be a good index of the weakness in producing reliable estimations when the extrapolation time increases too much. The proposed models and tests have been applied to a coastal sector located nearby Torre Colimena in the Apulia region, south Italy.