قیمت گذاری کربن و گسترش تولید انرژی های تجدید پذیر در شرق اروپا: یک روش برنامه ریزی خطی

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the costs for reducing CO2 emissions in the power-generating sectors in Croatia, the European part of Russia, Macedonia, Serbia and the Ukraine in 2020 by using a linear programming model. The model takes into account the impact of technology learning and is based on the underlying assumptions of the so-called RAINS model frequently used to assess the potential and the costs for reducing air pollution in Europe. The results based on an exogenously given 15 percent reduction target for CO2 emissions show that the marginal cost for switching from a carbon-intense fuel to either a low-carbon or to a renewable energy source differs significantly among the countries. The marginal costs range from 4 to 90€ per ton CO2, and are mainly due to country differences in the availability of renewables, existing technologies and costs. The results also indicate that although it is clear that the Eastern European countries are not homogeneous in terms of CO2 abatement potential and costs, no general conclusions can be made of the region. This may have important implications for future JI/CDM activities. For instance, risk factors such as policy uncertainty and institutional obstacles may become crucial in determining the future allocation of JI/CDM projects across the region.

The adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 marks an important first step in the process of addressing the problem of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. A significant step towards compliance with the Kyoto Protocol will be the European Union's emissions trading scheme (EU ETS), which was implemented in the beginning of 2005 and that will make it possible for selected sectors of the European economies to trade CO2 emission allowances within as well as across countries. Another measure for fulfilling the commitment is another so-called flexible mechanism, namely Joint Implementation (JI).1 JI implies that Annex I countries can engage in JI activities where the country (or corporation) finances emissions reduction activities in another Annex I country, most likely in Eastern European countries. The rationale for JI is that Annex I countries with high marginal costs of CO2 reduction will benefit from investing in other Annex I countries with relatively low marginal costs. High marginal cost countries such as Sweden can thus potentially make use of this option at a relatively large scale since it is unlikely that some of the low-cost countries will invest since they de facto do not face any binding abatement requirements.2 It is commonly accepted that the Eastern European countries, or the so-called economies in transition, will be important host countries for future JI activities and consequently important for other European countries in order to fulfill the Protocol (e.g., Victor et al., 2001; Fankhauser and Lavric, 2003). From a Western European point of view it thus becomes important to assess the correct costs for CO2 abatement in the power generation sectors among the Eastern European countries. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the costs of reducing CO2 emissions until 2020 in the power sectors in a number of Eastern European countries and regions: Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (Macedonia), European part of Russia, Serbia and Montenegro (Serbia), and the Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to how the pricing of carbon emissions may affect the diffusion of renewable power technologies in these countries. The study employs the underlying methodological framework of the RAINS model, which has been used to assess the potential and the costs for reducing air pollution in Europe.3 Specifically, a linear programming model is used to estimate the costs of complying with pre-determined emission targets in each country given the available potential for renewables and low carbon-content fuels. The model takes into account the effect of technology learning on power generation costs The results from the analysis can be used to: (a) indicate how the diffusion of renewable energy resources will be affected by the combination of carbon pricing and an exogenously decided emission reduction in each country and (b) assess the overall economic conditions for JI activities in the selected countries. There are at least three reasons for studying the above countries in the aforementioned context. First, there exists a gap in previous research concerning the impact of climate policy on the economics of power generation and technology choice in Eastern Europe.4 Second, apart from the potential for JI activities, these countries will become important in a European perspective if they are incorporated in the EU emissions trading scheme. For instance, the Eastern European countries can, to the extent that they can offer low-cost carbon mitigation options, put a downward pressure on allowance prices. Third, a comprehensive assessment of the cost for utilization of renewable power in these countries will be important for projecting the future price on carbon and consequently facilitate investment decisions in the power sectors all over Europe. In general, countries can comply with their reduction targets through achieving a lower final demand for energy, energy efficiency improvements and fuel switching. This paper is limited to only consider the latter measure. The focus lies on the potential to either switch to renewable energy sources, e.g., hydro, wind and solar, or to low-carbon intense technologies such as gas. The present paper does not attempt to provide an economy-wide analysis of carbon mitigation options, instead the focus lies on the power sector. In 1990 the power sectors accounted for some 36 percent of the total CO2 emissions in Europe (Klaassen et al., 2004). Among the greenhouse gases (GHG) covered in the Protocol, CO2 is the most critical one from a global warming perspective, and accounts for some 60 percent of the greenhouse effect (Houghton et al., 2001).5 The power industry is a relatively attractive target for mitigation actions since power generation provides much flexibility in terms of fuel choices and the different fuels have significantly different carbon contents. Other sectors are often more difficult to target; for instance, the transportation sector relies almost exclusively on oil products and few substitute fuels exist. The paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 briefly discusses European climate policy and the importance of the Eastern European countries. Section 3 describes the RAINS model and the methodology underlying the linear programming model used in this paper. Section 4 reviews the baseline scenarios and the potentials for different power generation sources in the selected countries. Section 5 presents the results of the model simulations and, finally, Section 6 discusses some limitations of the results and sums up the main findings.

This paper has presented an analysis of the costs for reducing CO2 emissions from the power sector in 2020 in a number of Eastern European countries by using the underlying methodological framework of the RAINS model. The results show that given a 15 percent quantitative reduction the marginal cost for reducing emissions range between 4 and 90 €/ton CO2 in the studied countries. The highest costs can be found in Ukraine and Serbia. One of the reasons for the high compliance costs is that the fossil fuel-intense power sector would experience increased costs if generation would be switched from low-cost alternatives to high-costs such as wind and biomass power. A maximum feasible reduction scenario was also used in the study, and the results from this show the marginal cost for a situation where the countries would use all possible resources available in order to minimize the CO2 emissions. The results show that the marginal costs for such a scenario range between 56 and 551 €/ton CO2. The combined results from the two scenarios implies that some countries experience a more dramatic increase in the marginal cost the more reduction that is required, hence creating a steeper marginal cost curve. Overall in the countries and regions, CO2 reductions from the power sector would be possible but the costs differ significantly. This implies that there is a wide potential for future JI projects in the region where CO2 reductions could be financed by other European countries. It is, however, also clear that the Eastern European countries are not homogeneous in terms of CO2 abatement potential and costs. This implies that risk factors such as policy uncertainties and institutional obstacles may be crucial in determining the actual allocation of JI/CDM activities across the region. The uncertainty regarding costs will also become important for implementing these countries in an EU emissions trading scheme. This paper has not intended to provide an entirely comprehensive analysis of the potential for CO2 reductions in the Eastern European region; instead it should be seen as a first attempt to model the costs for such reductions. Not all countries considered to be Eastern European were included in the model due to difficulties to access the necessary data. In future research efforts country-specific data are needed that better illustrate the potentials and costs for renewable energy resources in the region. The economic feasibility of renewable resources such as wind, solar and biomass has to be assessed for these countries in order to make robust assumptions of the overall capacity in future time periods. It is important to also bear in mind that fuel switching is not the only, or maybe not always the most efficient, measure to cope with climate objectives since in, for instance, Russia energy efficiency measure could be a key factor in reducing emissions.