عدم اطمینان و آنالیز حساسیت در ارزیابی عملکرد برای مخزن زباله های رادیو اکتیو سطح بالا ارائه شده در کوه یوکای امریکایی، نوادا

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, a detailed performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository. The following aspects of the 2008 YM PA are described in this presentation: (i) conceptual structure and computational organization, (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques in use, (iii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for physical processes, and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified the NRC’s regulations for the YM repository.

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste [1], [2], [3], [4], [5] and [6]. As part of this development, a detailed performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 [6] and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository [7]. This presentation provides an overview of the conceptual and computational structure of the indicated PA (hereafter referred to as the 2008 YM PA) and the roles that uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis play in this structure. The following aspects of the 2008 YM PA are described in this presentation: (i) conceptual structure and computational organization (Section 2), (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques in use (Section 3), (iii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for physical processes (Section 4), and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for expected dose to a reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified the NRC’s regulations for the YM repository (Section 5). The presentation then ends with a summary discussion (Section 6). This presentation is based on an invited talk given at the 2010 Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output (SAMO) conference in Milan, Italy [8], and, in turn, is an adaptation of three earlier presentations given at the 2008 International High-Level Radioactive Waste Management Conference (IHLRWMC) in Las Vegas, Nevada [9], [10] and [11]. The primary background reference for this presentation is a large and detailed technical report that describes the 2008 YM PA and provides references to a large body of additional reports that provide further information on the details of the 2008 YM PA and the models incorporated into this PA [6]. Selected aspects of the 2008 YM PA have also been described by the authors of this presentation in three additional conference papers [12], [13] and [14] and a book chapter [15]. At present, a special issue of Reliability Engineering & System Safety is under development that will provide more details on uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the 2008 YM PA than can be included in a single journal article.