دوز مورد انتظار و عدم قطعیت مرتبط و نتایج تجزیه و تحلیل حساسیت برای سناریوی نفوذ بشر در ارزیابی عملکرد سال 2008 از مخازن پیشنهادی زباله های رادیو اکتیو در سطح بالا در کوه یوکای امریکایی، نوادا

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes the determination of expected (mean) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository resulting from an inadvertent drilling intrusion into the repository. The following topics are addressed: (i) assumed properties of an inadvertent drilling intrusion and the determination of the associated dose and expected (mean) dose to the RMEI, (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for expected dose to the RMEI, and (iii) the numerical stability of the sampling-based procedure used to estimate expected (mean) dose to the RMEI. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations for a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, require that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) demonstrate compliance with three separate and distinct radiation protection standards [1] and [2]: (i) Individual Protection Standard after Permanent Closure (10 CFR 63.311), which is based on the required characteristics of the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) as described in 10 CFR 63.312, (ii) Individual Protection Standard for Human Intrusion (10 CFR 63.321), which is based on the Human Intrusion Scenario described in 10 CFR 63.322, and (iii) Standards for Protection of Ground Water (10 CFR 63.331), which are based on the representative ground water volume specified in 10 CFR 63.332. This presentation describes analyses performed as part of the 2008 YM performance assessment (PA) to assess compliance with the Individual Protection Standard for Human Intrusion. Specifically, the determination of expected (mean) dose to the RMEI resulting from an inadvertent drilling intrusion is described, and associated uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results are presented. The following topics are considered: regulatory background (Section 2); structure of analysis used to determine dose, expected dose, uncertainty in dose and expected dose, and resultant expected (mean) dose to the RMEI (Section 3); uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI and associated sensitivity analysis results (Section 4); and numerical stability of the sampling-based procedure used to estimate expected (mean) dose to the RMEI (Section 5). The presentation then concludes with a summary discussion (Section 6). Summaries of the analyses performed in the 2008 YM PA to assess compliance with the Individual Protection Standard after Permanent Closure and the Standards for Protection of Ground Water are presented in Refs. [3] and [4], respectively. Further, more detailed results underlying the assessment of compliance with the Individual Protection Standard after Permanent Closure are presented in Refs. [5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12] and [13], and a summary of the entire 2008 YM PA is available in Ref. [14].