مطالعه موردی پیش بینی شهری و توسعه برنامه ریزی: اجرای برنامه ریزی سناریو در تدوین طرح توسعه Bulungan

This article discusses the formulation of the Bulungan Development Plan (2002) that sought to formulate a 25 year city vision. The foresight process included how to prepared the process, implemented the scenario planning method, created consensus amongst stakeholders, and formulated graphic and narrative scenarios that explored alternative future for Bulungan. Based on these scenarios, the stakeholders formulated a vision for the city's preferred future. The vision is “excellence in agro industry supported by qualified human resources”. Project debriefing showed that unlike traditional forecasting or market research, the methods of foresight, especially scenario planning, is a more appropriate and powerful planning tool for integrated regional development. The main reason for this is that the future is unpredictable, and scenarios allow stakeholders to make sense of complexity.

Bulungan is one of the regencies in the province of East Kalimantan, Indonesia, which is located in the northern part of Kalimantan Island (Fig. 1). It borders Nunukan Regency and Malaysia to the north, Tarakan and Sulawesi Sea to the east, Berau Regency to the south, and Malinau Regency to the west. The population of this 18,010.50 square kilometer regency was 109,219 (2006). In general, Bulungan people work in agriculture (78.1%), followed by the services sector (26%). Agriculture is the highest contributing sector within the region, earning 24.56% of the regional income of Bulungan, followed by the food processing industry (24%). Political instability in 1998 which led to large-scale national reformation has triggered the people’s intention to form their own regency, including the people in Bulungan. In 1999, Bulungan was divided into three parts: Nunukan, Malinau and Bulungan itself. This regional change had social, economic and political consequences on Bulungan’s government administration. Democratic governance faced various internal institutional problems as well as forming relations with the politicians in the Regional People’s Representative Council. Policy formulation became more complicated as it engaged the Council with its vested interests. One of the Regency’s important agendas was setting the direction of Bulungan’s long term development. This long term development plan would be used as a reference to formulate the medium term development outcomes for the first five year period. Since the Bulungan Government had no experience or skills capability to formulate a long term strategic plan,Assessment and Application of Technology). The project commenced in 2002 and was fully financed by the Bulungan Government. The main task of the BPPT expert team (referred to as the Foresight Team), was to design and conduct the planning processes to address the known challenges of the study area and to be culturally sensitive to the people of Bulungan. The outputs of the foresight project would be used by BAPPEDA to prepare the Bulungan Long Term Development Plan. The intra-agency project team started to work effectively in March and completed their collaboration in December 2002. The project activities occurred in three stages: 1. Preliminary study – comprising planning problem analysis and foresight method selection; 2. Foresight activity – engaging stakeholders with alternative scenarios; and 3. Formulation of the Bulungan Development Plan This case study focuses on the first two steps of the foresight project from the perspective of BPPT’s participation. The purpose is to examine the specific application of scenario planning in formulating a regional development plan. The paper consists of two parts: (1) the introduction which consists of activity background, problem identification, and foresight method selection, and (2) foresight method implementation and lessons learned.

Implementation of scenario planning has helped overcome the perceived obstacles in formulating the Bulungan Development Plan. This method has strengthened the planning process to decide the direction of Bulungan development with limited data and information. The scenario planning process also created consensus amongst stakeholders about Bulungan's vision for its future. The implementation of scenario planning was fully supported by the Bulungan government and the team was committed to using this foresight method. However, it was not easily executed by the team due to the major obstacle of lack of data to formulate the story plot of each scenario. Information on policy and development plans in Bulungan was not always accessible within the region and as a result information searches were often broadened to neighboring areas such as Tarakan, the provincal capital Samarinda, or the information center in Jakarta. This case study shows that scenario planning is an appropriate method to integrate with strategic planning processes for a region under the following conditions: • where many key factors of a region's future development are uncertain. • when stakeholders have various and different desires while at the same time a consensus is needed to direct development programs. • where data and information are not available and their accuracy is hard to believe Due to many uncertain factors which have great influence on national and regional development, and also on sectional development like the development of the sector of science and technology, scenario generation has proved its value as a policy and planning method and as a stakeholder engagement tool.