عوامل پیش بینی کننده علائم PTSD در بزرگسالان بستری در مرکز تروما سطح I: تجزیه و تحلیل آینده نگر

Trauma centers are an ideal point of intervention in efforts to prevent posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In order to assist in the development of prevention efforts, this study sought to identify early predictors of PTSD symptoms among adults admitted to a Level I trauma center using a novel analytic strategy (Fournier et al., 2009). Upon admission, participants (N = 327) were screened for PTSD symptoms and provided information on potential predictor variables. Their PTSD symptoms were assessed again 3 months later (N = 227). Participants were classified as symptomatic (positive PTSD screen) or asymptomatic (negative PTSD screen) at the follow-up assessment. Multinomial logistic regression showed that age, depression, number of premorbid psychiatric disorders, gunshot wound, auto vs. pedestrian injury, and alcohol use predicted who had PTSD symptoms at FU with 76.3% accuracy. However, when controlling for PTSD severity at baseline, only age, number of premorbid psychiatric disorders, and gunshot wounds predicted PTSD symptoms at FU but with 78.5% accuracy. These findings suggest that psychological prevention efforts in trauma centers may be best directed toward adults who are young, have premorbid psychiatric disorders, and those admitted with gunshot wounds.